Philadelphia Inquirer political analyst Dick Polman says 2008 may be ripe for an independent presidential candidate. Like, perhaps, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Polman believes Bloomberg's wealth, the Internet and the possibility that both of the two major parties will nominate a non-centrist candidate all play to Bloomberg's favor.
Pollman: Which brings us to Bloomberg, who has already spent months war-gaming a possible candidacy. He happens to have the requisite chops for the role: a bipartisan track record (former Democrat who wins in NYC as a Republican; knocks heads across party lines; strong managerial steward in a tough city); a healthy ego (he wrote in his autobiography 10 years ago that he wants to "change the world for the better"); and enough personal wealth to bankroll a national bid without badly denting his bottom line (a serious independent candidacy, including a 50-state ballot access effort, would cost half a billion bucks - but he is reportedly worth as much as $20 billion).
And there's one more tantalizing factor. As Howard Dean demonstrated in 2003, the Internet can spread the word 24/7 and create a fan base overnight. Indeed, the Bloomberg people already have a potential Internet vehicle. Reportedly, they have been talking with the founders of Unity08 (http:www.unity08.com), a new grassroots operation that plans to nominate a centrist presidential ticket in an online citizen convention, scheduled for June '08, and to help that ticket navigate the ballot-access hurdles.
Unity08 may sound a bit wiggy - brainstorms such as these typically blow away with the breeze - but the founders are old pros: Hamilton Jordan, chief of staff in the Carter White House; and Doug Bailey, ex-GOP consultant and a prime force behind Washington's political news bible, The Hotline (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/). They've even hired a celebrity spokesperson, actor Sam Waterston, although one could argue that a TV lawyer and '80s Woody Allen thespian won't make hardened politicos quake in their boots.
Bloomberg's decision, however, will hinge on whether the major parties give him an opening by ceding the center of the electorate. He may be most tempted if liberal Democratic primary voters opt for a polarizing candidate (say, Hillary Clinton), and if conservative Republican primary voters pick somebody who seems overly beholden to the base (say, Mitt Romney). Conventional wisdom has generally decreed that Bloomberg wouldn't run if John McCain wins the nomination, but he might do it anyway, figuring that McCain will have to forfeit his alleged maverick credentials and pander rightward just to get the GOP nod.
It's the Democrats who would most dread a Bloomberg bid. Because he talks a lot like one of them - he is pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control, anti-creationism, and pro-permanent status for illegal immigrants - he could draw the kinds of voters that the party needs most in 2008. Indeed, the Democrats cannot afford to lose anybody; only once since 1964 have they even pulled 50 percent of the vote in a presidential election. Worse yet for the Democrats, check out the Electoral College calculus: Bloomberg could be most potent in heretofore reliably blue states, notably New York and New Jersey.
As I noted the other day, Bloomberg isn't even the best-known New York mayor in the race. But he does have something Rudy Giuliani doesn't have - the personal wealth to make fundraising an unimportant part of his campaign.
A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon we're talking about a serious candidate.
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