Liberal commentator Josh Marshall says Arizona Sen. John McCain "is going nowhere in the 2008 presidential race," and he's got some numbers to back up his assessment from American Research Group. Writes Marshall:
A new ARG poll shows that over the past year, McCain's support among New Hampshire independents has dropped from 49% to 29%. And ARG President Dick Bennett says those numbers are in line with what he's seeing in other states too.
One suspects (and this may be borne out in more detailed poll data) that the two big reasons for the collapse in independent support for McCain are his status as an Iraq war dead-ender and the fact that he's spent the last three years making nice with right-wingers and right-wing policy initiatives that independents don't like. Remember too that, despite all the kowtowing, there are big leaders on the religious right who say they'll never support his candidacy for president.
I know a lot of people are saying McCain's a hypocrite and a flipflopper. And, sure, I agree, that's a big reason why his popularity has diminished so dramatically. But isn't it time people start asking whether he'd be a strong presidential candidate or whether he can even win the nomination? His claim to fame, what supposedly makes him such a strong contender is his support among independent voters. But they don't like him anymore.
While Marshall thinks McCain is "making nice with right-wingers and right-wing policy initiatives," to the detriment of his approval ratings with independents - which is likely true - Marshall misses the huge self-inflicted damage McCain has caused to his relationship with large segments of the Right via such misguided efforts as McCain-Feingold and his steadfast support for granting de facto amnesty to illegal immigrants.
When McCain told Vanity Fair, regarding the 700 miles of border fence that is now mandated by law to enhance border security, "I think the fence is least effective. But I'll build the goddamned fence if they want it," he simultaneously undermined his credibility with the Right and with independents. With the Right he enhanced his image as being soft on illegal immigration, while independents will read the quote and see McCain pandering to the Right.
That kind of math doesn't add up to victory.
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