Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he won't decide until September if he will seek  the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. It's a decision that could cede conservative-Republican voters to another candidate - but I predict it more likely that Gingrich's delayed decision will keep Republican conservatives hedging their bets until they know if Gingrich will be a candidate.

CNSNews reports from a gathering of conservatives in Washington DC that Gingrich, a hero to the conservative movement, where made his no-announcement-until-September announcement that Gingrich said he thinks the early launch of the '08 presidential race is "stupid."

"I think this whole process is stupid," he told the National Review Institute's Conservative Summit, referring to the fact that presidential campaigns are being launched almost two years before the election. Early announcements are "entirely consultant-driven ... and let me tell you, consultants are not friends of the conservative movement," he said.

A student of history, Gingrich pointed out that two of the 20th century's most popular presidents - Ronald Reagan and JFK - did not declare their candidacies two years in advance.

Reagan announced his candidacy Nov. 13, 1979, about a year before the 1980 election, while JFK delayed announcing his candidacy until Jan. 2, 1960, just 10 months before election day.

That's true, but of course Reagan really never stopped running after losing the 1976 nomination to incumbent President Gerald R. Ford, who then lost in the general election. Reagan didn't need to announce early - his candidacy in 1980 was a foregone conclusion.

Gingrich told the National Review conference audience that it "would be historically wrong to spend all of 2007 raising money in order to run in 2008 in order to take office in January 2009."

Instead, Gingrich urged Republican presidential candidates and other elected officials to spend the next year "talking about solutions as Americans," saying, "we don't need the two parties running off into corners to yell at each other.

Gingrich called on conference attendees to initiate a conservative groundswell similar to the one he led in 1994, when Republicans took control of Congress during the Clinton administration.

"There are 511,000 elective offices in the United States," he said. "A genuine wave of reform has to come across the nation, not just be in two or three presidential campaign headquarters."

CNSNews reports that Gingrich has established American Solutions, described "a deliberate effort to renew, revitalize and re-launch the Goldwater-Reagan Contract with America movement by going back to its source: the citizen activists, communities and states that built the American conservative movement."

So, what does this mean for the presidential race on the Republican side? Consider the facts:

1. As yet no Republican candidate, declared or likely, has captured the hearts of Republican conservatives - first-tier candidates like John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney all have records that make conservatives - especially social conservatives - wary. And while second-tier candidates like Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul are bidding for conservative support, they all suffer either from a lack of name recognition or questions about their records and their conservative bona fides. A solid conservative like Gilmore, the former governor of Virginia, might connect with conservatives, but can he raise the money?

2. No one doubts Gingrich's conservative credentials - or the visionary "Big Ideas" way he approaches issues.

3. Gingrich's name recognition is high so fund-raising would be less of a problem - and he's media-genic. So long as he holds open the possibility of running, the news media will cover him, giving him tons of free media while the (un)lucky seven second-tier candidates scramble for scraps of coverage and try to scrape up enough cash for paid-media.

Some of Gingrich's free media will be intended to be less-than-flattering, of course, but the net effect will be to keep Gingrich's name in the news,  and the possibility of a presidential run very fresh in the minds of Republican primary voters.

Until he declares in September - and I'd bet money he runs - Gingrich will be running an unofficial campaign based on making big policy proposals and gaining tons of free media. And as long as he's doing that, a lot of conservatives will wait until September before they completely commit to any of the current candidates.

That's the way I see it.

Washington Post reporter/blogger Chris Cillizza has a different take on Gingrich's delay, saying Gingrich's delay may be ceding the conservative slot to Brownback, Thompson or Gilmore.

Cillizza:

At the moment there's plenty of room in the field for Gingrich -- an ideas guy who can speak the language of social conservatives. But will that space be there come this fall, which is when Gingrich has said he will make up his mind? Brownback is already working to fill that slot as are others - former Govs. Tommy Thompson (Wisc.) and Jim Gilmore (Va.) jump to mind. Politics is all about timing. And Gingrich may have lost this race before it starts by setting too long a timeline.

Gingrich is a former history professor. He knows how presidential races play out, though with the compressed and front-loaded time frame for the '08 primaries it is a bit of a gamble to wait until September of '07 to declare. But then again by September of '07 the field of candidates will have shrunk - some of the (un)lucky seven will have bowed out, and maybe even one of the current top three will have imploded.

Money can buy Giuliani, Romney and McCain tons of paid-media and plenty of news coverage. It can't buy them the conservatives' love. As long as the potential Gingrich candidacy is dangled out there, the race for the conservative primary vote isn't settled.