Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

The New York Daily News reports on the contents of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's 140-page presidential campaign strategy, leaked to it by someone connected with one of Giuliani's rivals for the 2008 GOP nomination. The paper is playing it as a huge story, though when it really comes down to it none of the details they reported are all that surprising.

It is no surprise that Giuliani and others seeking the GOP presidential nomination are modeling their fund-raising efforts after President Bush's successful mega-fundraising efforts in the 2000 and 2004 races. It is no surprise that Giuliani is especially targeting California for his fundraising efforts - as I wrote here a few weeks ago, Giuliani's socially liberal views will play well there.

More interesting in the New York Daily News' report, and the leaked campaign strategy document, is its analysis of Giuliani's political weaknesses vis a vis the Republican primaries, though even those contain nothing not already known. Still, reading it in an internal Giuliani campaign document makes it more interesting:

Giuliani leads most public opinion polls of Republican primary voters though he has not announced his candidacy for President. But the dossier, which envisions spending more than $21 million this year alone, shows that Giuliani began meeting with potential supporters last April and that by October, his staff had put in place a detailed plan for a serious bid for the presidency. But they also depict a candidate torn between his prosperous business and a political future full of both promise and risk.

One page cites the explicit concern that he might "drop out of [the] race" as a consequence of his potentially "insurmountable" personal and political vulnerabilities.

On the same page is a list of the candidate's central problems in bullet-point form: his private sector business; disgraced former aide Bernard Kerik; his third wife, Judith Nathan Giuliani; "social issues," on which is he is more liberal than most Republicans, and his former wife Donna Hanover.

The concerns appear to be listed as issues for Giuliani law partner Pat Oxford to address and are followed by the central question of the campaign:

Are there "prob[lem]s that are insurmount[able]?" it asks, adding, "Has anyone reviewed with RWG?" Giuliani, whose middle name is William, is referred to throughout the document by his initials.

"All will come out - in worst light," the memo continues. "$100 million against us on this stuff."

Giuliani probably is leading the race right now, by a small margin over Arizona Sen. John McCain, but he has not yet put to rest questions of whether he can actually win the GOP nomination. The leaked strategy document recognizes his liabilities and, because it has been leaked, raises their profile.

The Daily News has not put the whole document online. One wonders if it contains more interesting nuggets that the paper will roll out as news "exclusives" as the campaign unfolds, or is at least holding back some of the information that can serve as a proprietary guide or template for coverage of the campaign. I'd advise the Giuliani campaign to review the document and release, before the Daily News does, anything not yet released that could hurt the campaign.

Update: Ben Smith, the New York Daily News reporter who wrote about the leaked campaign strategy document, also wrote a sidebar about another interesting bit of info in the leaked document. On his blog, Smith summarized: "It reveals an extraordinary amount of international travel, and a very lucrative run of paid speeches, both of which a full-out political campaign would presumably reduce."

From the sidebar:

The central question of Giuliani's nascent candidacy is whether he'll be willing to commit the time, and make the financial sacrifice, that a run for President entails. A look at his schedule demonstrates what a dramatic shift that would be - and how much he will have to give up. Giuliani has been paid $100,000 for a single speech in the past, and his schedule appears to contain 16 such speeches over three months - to say nothing of his consulting, legal and investment banking businesses.

Will Giuliani give up his lucrative speaking and business dealings to be president, a job that pays about what Giuliani makes in four or five speeches? I'm guessing he will.