2008 is the next big national election with races for President and the Senate and House - but 2007 brings gubernatorial elections on three states that could be an advance preview of how Republicans will fare in '08. In all three states - Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucy - that will chose governors this fall, the incumbent is seeking re-election. Louisiana's governor is a Democrat, while Kentucky and Mississippi both have incumbent Republicans. Here's a brief look at each race...
Louisiana
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco is a total disaster whose leadership inabilities were exposed by Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. Louisiana's elections are a little different - instead of party primaries followed by a general election, there's an open primary in late October, followed by a runoff November 17 if no one gets over 50 percent.
Blanco isn't the only Democrat in the race - state PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell also is running, but he's polling in the single digits. On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal is the lone Republican running and, given Blanco's disastrous leadership in the Bayou State, she's probably toast. This race is leaning heavily toward Jindal: the latest polls show Jindal swamping Blanco and winning this one in the first round.
Mississippi
Incumbent Republican Gov. Haley Barbour is popular and not facing a primary challenge, and nobody's stepped up yet on the Democratic side even though the filing deadline is March 1.
Barbour, who was as praised for his handling of the Katrina aftermath as Blanco was condemned, will be re-elected.
Kentucky
Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher hopes for re-election but first Fletcher, whose poll numbers are dismal, will have to withstand a GOP primary challenge from former U.S. Rep. Anne Northrup. Here's a pretty good story on the Northrup challenge. Here's another story from a few weeks ago, before Northrup made it official, which explains Fletcher's unpopularity and looks at Northrup's chances to unseat him in the primary.
On the Democratic side there are three candidates: State Treasurer Jonathan Miller and two former Lt. Governors - Steve Beshear and Steve Henry. The primary is May 22
Northrup stands a good chance to defeat Fletcher in the primaries, and if she does she's got a good shot at keeping the Kentucky governorship in GOP hands. She lost her Louisville House district last November, but it's the most Democratic district in the state. She's more likely to win statewide than she was in that House district.
The Bottom line: Republicans are likely to pick up one governor's seat this year.
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