Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

TownHall.com columnists Dick Morris and Eileen McGann say today that, "the John McCain candidacy, launched amid much hope, fanfare, and high expectations, may be dying before our eyes" and may soon "just dry up from lack of support, money, or interest." They write:

Throughout all of 2006, McCain sat atop the polls right next to Rudy Giuliani. In the Fox News survey of December, 2006, he was getting 27 percent of the Republican primary vote to Rudy's 31 percent. But, after Giuliani announced that he was running, the Arizona senator fell to 24 percent while Rudy soared into the stratosphere at 41 percent of the primary voters. But even when McCain was polling well, he wasn't raising the money he needs for this campaign.

In the last quarter of 2006, during a time when he was tied for front-runner status in the GOP and doing well in general election matchups against likely Democratic rivals like Hillary Clinton, he raised only $1.7 million according to his filing with the Federal Elections Commission.

Even worse, he had less than $500,000 on hand, pocket change in a presidential race and barely adequate for a run for Congress.

Part of McCain's problem was that he wasn't raising money. But the other part has been that he is spending money too rapidly — and not on reaching voters but on paying political consultants. One top Republican operative from the old Reagan campaign commented, "McCain has hired every consultant he can find. He has all the top names, but no money."

What is McCain's problem?

Why did he go from the most exciting candidate in the race a year ago to the verge of oblivion today?

Fundamentally, he failed to heed the Shakespeare's admonition "to thine own self be true." The John McCain of the 2000 campaign is nowhere in evidence in 2007. "

I know a lot of Republicans. I don't know one of them who is eager to fund and vote for John McCain for president.

I agree that McCain is sinking fast, but Morris and McGann are wrong about the reasons. Don Surber has it right: The reason McCain is sinking fast is McCain-Feingold.

The fundamental difference between McCain 2000 and McCain 2008 is that he put his name on a law that forbids people from speaking out against their congressman within 60 days of an election.

Wrong on abortion? That has not stopped Rudy or Mitt. Wrong on gay marriage? Rudy lived with a gay couple after his second wife kicked him out of the house. Gun control? It has not stopped Rudy or Mitt.

McCain-Feingold. That is a show-stopper. Ever step in fresh dog-doo? The smell sticks to the shoe all day. That is what McCain-Feingold is to the senator from Arizona. He is no longer John McCain. He is McCain-Feingold.

Read the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

That not only is the law, but that is good political advice.

Americans do not like to be told to shut up.

McCain-Feingold told Americans to shut up.

Write it down: John McCain will not win the GOP presidential nomination. Not gonna happen. Giuliani is the front-runner, and McCain's demise will help Romney, though you should watch for an unquestioned conservative to rise from the lower poll numbers to challenge Romney for the conservative mantle.