Human Events editor John Gizzi examines the prospects for the Republicans to regain the majority in the House of Representatives in 2008:
For all the talk of a new generation of Democratic rule in the House of Representatives and Republicans' being shut out of control until at least the next census in 2011, the hard numbers don't agree. In 33 districts nationwide, Democrats emerged triumphant with 55% of the vote or less. In 18 of those districts, the margin of victory for the Democrats was less than 52%.
Four of the "squeaker Democrats" -- Mahoney (FL-4), Gillibrand (NY-20), Carney (PA-10), and Lampson (TX-22) -- were elected in historically Republican districts in the wake of scandal surrounding the GOP incumbent. Mahoney and Lampson, in fact, were narrow winners over substitute Republican candidates when the resigned incumbents in their districts (former Representatives Mark Foley and Tom DeLay) could not even get their names removed from the November ballots.
Gizzi provides a list of the 33 most-closely won Democratic seats in '06, "most of which are sure to be the most hotly contested House races in '08 and the battlegrounds for a possible Republican recapture of the House." See his list here.
The Democrats actually won two of the seats with less than 50 percent of the total vote. All told, the Democrats have a 233-202 margin in the House. The GOP needs to pick up just 16 seats to take back control of the House. They won 18 of the most closely-won seats by less than 52 percent.
Gizzi says the GOP can retake the House in 2008. I agree.
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