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Mar26
Can a Late-Entry Win the Nomination?

Washington Post op-ed columnist Fred Hiatt examines whether, with the front-loaded primary schedule and the need to raise huge sums of money, a late entrant into the presidential race can win the Republican or Democratic nomination.

The pros say it can't happen: The Feb. 5 "super-primary," when California and so many other states will vote so early, demands that any serious candidate have tens or hundreds of millions banked before Iowa and New Hampshire, because there will be no time after to raise funds for what amounts to an instant national campaign. And that demands the early start.

Gingrich, no slouch on political tactics, begs to differ. He points out that it took not all that much time for Obama to go from mentioned to phenom to leading candidate. In the age of Internet fundraising -- and boosted in the broadcasting world by "my friend Sean" and "my friend Rush" -- Gingrich reasons that he could enter the race in October and have all the resources he needs by January. It may be a stretch to think of Gingrich as a fresh face, but come fall he might seem that way.

Hiatt should examine the Fred Thompson surge, which suggests that, in the age of the Internet all that early-start and early fundraising may be less valuable than in election cycles past...

The Thompson surge is an entirely grassroots phenomenon that is already lining up thousands of volunteers and potential donors and engaging supporters of other Republican candidates in issues combat and defense of his experience and record. In short, Thompson isn't even officially in the race, but a grassroots online campaign is already running in his place. The result: Thompson hasn't spent or raised a dime and hasn't given the first official campaign speech, yet he's tied with Hillary Clinton in a national head-to-head poll from Rasmussen, and is showing strong in various GOP voter polls and straw polls and such.

The game has changed, and a late entry may now carry as much advantage as disadvantage.


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» Fred-a-Rama from ElephantBiz
With former Sen. Fred Thompson about to declare his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination, I thought I'd provide ElephantBiz.com readers with a list of the many posts about or mentioning Fred Thompson since word of a possible bid sta... [Read More]

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