Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Just as I predicted in a March 12 post titled The Surge that Will Transform the Republican Presidential Race, the possible candidacy of former Sen. Fred Thompson is forcing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to speed up his own plans to enter the presidential race.

A week ago I wrote that a surge of conservative support for Thompson would freeze the poll numbers for front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney, and knock some of the trailing candidates out of the race. "Even Newt Gingrich, the undeclared candidate who said he would wait until fall to announce if he is running, has had his calculus changed," I said. "Now, waiting to fall might be too long, if Fred later this spring or early summer goes ahead and fills the role of conservative savior of the party."

It is already happening...

Via DallasBlog.com we learn that Gingrich's former campaign chairman, Matt Towery, now says that he is "100 percent positive that Gingrich will enter the battle for the GOP nomination... The real issue for Team Gingrich on a presidential announcement is not if, but when." Towery made those comments in a viewpoint article he wrote for the Florida Times-Union this week.

DallasBlog's take on it:

The problem for Gingrich, according to Towery is that the decision of a number of the more populous states to move their presidential primaries up to February of next year poses a problem for Gingrich.  If he waits too long to get into the race, too many of the Republican activists and campaign contributors already are committed to other candidates. 

Here is what Towery has to say about that problem:  "Expect a draft-Gingrich movement to gear into overdrive. Especially with new potential rival Republican candidates also waiting in the wings, such as former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. With Mitt Romney capturing "the Bushies" state by state and Sen. John McCain running close behind in the early commitments, Gingrich is running out of time quicker than anticipated."

Ironically, though, if Thompson's possible candidacy forces Gingrich to enter the race sooner, that could in turn force Thompson to also speed up his decision to enter the race or to not run at all.

Campaigns are more chess than checkers, as Towery's piece in the Florida Times-Union illustrates rather well. And in the chess game that is the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, Thompson's move last Sunday is forcing all the other players to adjust their strategies.