Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani "has much on the line" in his speech today to the conservative activists gathered for the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C., says today's New York Times.

Forums such as the CPAC meeting, sponsored by the American Conservative Union (ACU), provide both an opportunity and a challenge for Giuliani in his efforts to show that he can maintain support among the party’s crucial conservative base — despite views on a number of topics, especially hot-button social issues such as abortion and gay rights, that place him to the left of many diehard Republican voters.

As a former local official, even of the nation’s most-populous city, Giuliani “is the least tested of all of the potential nominees, in terms of his acceptability to conservatives out in the country,” ACU Chairman David A. Keene told CQPolitics.com in an interview Wednesday, adding that Giuliani is making his first introductions to many of those voters

The NYT says the speech is not a "make or break moment" for Giuliani, who has been gaining support among conservatives in recent polls. But I think it may be a make or break moment for someone else.

John McCain.

McCain rejected an invite to speak at CPAC.

McCain - who long has had a thorny relationship with some conservative activists because of his image as a Republican maverick on some social and environmental matters and his trademark issue of tightening campaign finance regulations — did not accept the ACU’s invitation to speak at the March 1-3 conference.

Among those appearing to speak: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, along with possible Republican presidential candidates Kansas Rep. Sam Brownback; former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; California Rep. Duncan Hunter; and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo.

It's possible that Giuliani will gain ground quite possible that one of those candidates will emerge as the leading conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani. I'd place my bets on Gingrich, Gilmore, Romney and Huckabee in that order.

Of course, it also is possibly that Giuliani will gain ground with conservatives given his solid conservative record of success on welfare reform, taxes, crime and other issues as Mayor of New York City.

Either way, it is virtually certain McCain will lose ground.