The latest Franklin Pierce College/WBZ-TV poll in New Hampshire finds that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain are virtually tied for first place, at 29 percent and 28 percent respectively, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is solidly in third place at 22 percent.
There are a number of ways to look at this. The first is, how can Romney, who governed the state next door, not be winning or at least tied for the lead in New Hampshire?
The second is, this poll is mostly meaningless because it was taken March 7-12, most of it before former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson shook up the GOP race by announcing he was giving serious consideration to running for president.
I'll be highly interested to see the next polls out of New Hampshire, Iowa, and nationally, to see how Thompson's possible candidacy affects conservatives' support for McCain, Giuliani and especially Romney.
Here are the details of the Franklin Pierce/WBZ poll of 400 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters...
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, John McCain (29%) and Rudy Giuliani (28%) would be in a statistical tie for first place, followed closely by Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney (22%). Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, though not an official candidate, would come in fourth place with five percent of the vote. None of the other candidates in the race attract much support at all at this time.
Nine percent of Republican Primary voters remain undecided.
R. Kelly Myers, Senior Fellow at the Fitzwater Center for Communication at Franklin Pierce College, said the polling data on each candidate's favorability/unfavorability, indicate that "the three top-tier candidates in the Republican Presidential Primary each have very strong approval ratings, and relatively low negatives, leaving each of them in a strong position."
The net favorability ratings for all of the other Republican Presidential hopefuls currently "remain extraordinarily low," Myers said.
"The 2008 Republican Presidential Primary is currently shaping up to be a lopsided contest between three top-tier candidates and everyone else," Myers said. "Mitt Romney no longer looks like a distant third place candidate, but a real contender, primarily because he is polling well among self-identified conservatives.
"Gingrich could become a factor in the race, but he would have to overcome his high negatives to run more competitively," he said. "Each of the other Republican Presidential hopefuls has their work cut out for them if they intend to break out of the pack and compete more successfully against today’s early front-runners."
Like I said, a key bit of data in the next polls out of New Hampshire will be to what extent a presidential bid by Fred Thompson would cut into Romney's conservative support.
The Data:
John McCain 29%
Rudy Giuliani 28%
Mitt Romney 22%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Sam Brownback 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Jim Gilmore *
George Pataki *
Tommy Thompson *
Undecided 9%
*=Less than 0.5%
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