Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

The Daily Fred for Tuesday, March 27, 2007, starts with Gallup pollster Frank Newport, who says new polling shows Fred Thompson's potential candidacy is already cutting into the support for Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, writes:

He’s certainly creating a mini-stir of attention from rank and file Republicans.  Thompson now gets getting 12% of the GOP vote.  At the same time, Rudy Giuliani is down 13 points, and Mitt Romney has sunk from 8% to 3%. 

Given that John McCain comes in at 22% -- little changed -- Thompson is suddenly in third place among Republicans.

We’re doing some research now to find out what people think about Fred Thompson in more detail.  It's hard to imagine that Republicans have a finely-tuned understanding of his positions on the issues and so forth. But a Republican candidate like Duncan Hunter would probably yearn for 12% of the GOP vote at this point -- no matter what its origin. 

More comments on the poll from the New York Sun, and The Nation.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Martin at The Politico notes rising support for Thompson in Congress - and not just among the Tennessee delegation.

Now, on to the rest of today's Fred Thompson news and commentary...

After last week making the case for why Thompson should run for president in 2008, today, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza makes the case why Thompson shouldn't run. Cillizza:

Two factors make a bid by Thompson an ill-advised proposition -- the incredibly early start of the 2008 campaign and the former senator's well-known distaste for the nuts and bolts of campaigning. Because John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have essentially been running for much of the past year, they have built national fundraising networks and organizations in key early states. Thompson has none of that, which wouldn't be a problem if he had shown a passion in past

Cillizza also says Thompson's support a decade ago for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform may hurt Thompson with conservative voters, and Cillizza also raises the question of Thompson's pro-life bona fides.

While Cillizza talks pros and cons, the real question is, Will he run?

WaPo columnist Mary Ann Akers thinks so.

Looks like Fred Thompson really isn't teasing about possibly running for president. The actor and former Republican senator from Tennessee was spotted having lunch today at the see-and-be-seen Mayflower hotel restaurant with GOP Party guru Ed Gillespie, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee who has advised and groomed many a successful GOP candidate over the years.

Thompson wouldn't be able to hire Gillespie, of Quinn Gillespie and Associates, since Gillespie is chairing the Republican Party of Virginia and, therefore, must remain neutral in the presidential primary. But Gillespie is a friend. The two bonded during the Senate confirmation hearing of now Chief Justice John Roberts - Thompson was Roberts' White House-appointed sherpa; Gillespie was the White House's front man on the confirmation process.

But... can he win the nomination?

CBS News notes that Thompson is already polling well even without officially entering the race:

The American Research Group polled voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire last week and found a surprising level of interest in the possible candidacy of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson among Republicans in those states.

 But that doesn't mean everybody likes Thompson.

Gristmill, an environmental news blog, takes a look a look at Thompson's rhetoric and record on global warming, and doesn't like what they find. Conservatives will, though. (It's also posted at HuffPo.)

Other stuff bouncing around the Internet today:

...The American Thinker shares some letters-to-the-editor regarding Thompson.

...The Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes Thompson's win in the Gwinnett County Republican straw poll.

...Internet cartoonists/bloggers Cox & Forkum have a Thompson sketch and a collection of Thompson info and links.

...Below the Beltway blogger Doug Mataconis thinks most of Thompson’s popularity as a candidate arises out of the roles that he has played on television and in the movies. Says Mataconis:

That will be enough to at least get him consideration that other candidates in the race like Huckabee and Brownback will never get. Where he goes from there will depend on whether Republican voters find that the candidate has lived up to their predetermined image.

...New York Times writer Carl Hulse thinks that Thompson's not as conservative as some people want or think. Hulse:

Mr. Thompson compiled a record in the Senate that included votes against same-sex marriage and other gay rights proposals, consistent opposition to gun control and support of a ban on late-term abortions. He scored generally high marks from conservative groups.

But he was also a supporter of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill, opposed by most conservatives. A former trial lawyer, Mr. Thompson opposed some of the changes sought by Republicans to protect businesses from lawsuits.

And though his Senate voting record against abortion rights is clear and he has said recently that he would support overturning Roe v. Wade as “bad law and bad medical science,” some conservative bloggers - including one on Evangelicals for Mitt, a Web site promoting Mr. Romney’s campaign — have cited news articles from 1994 in which Mr. Thompson was described as “pro-choice” as evidence that his position has not been consistent.

Thompson's ace-in-the-hole on the abortion issue is his solidly pro-life Senate voting record, which easily trumps something some newspaper reporters wrote that described him as pro-choice. As for McCain-Feingold, Thompson said on his now-famous Fox New Sunday appearance that he's open to scrapping it and going to a system of no-limits/full-and-immediate online disclosure.

And that's The Daily Fred for Tuesday, March 27.