Capitol Hill Blue says GOP conservatives gathered for the first time the GOP's November election losses "found little to cheer about in a 2008 Republican White House field they largely viewed with skepticism and distrust."
"There is some disillusionment, some demoralization and a hope that other conservatives jump in the ring. I don't find a sense of excitement about the candidates at all," said Steve Baldwin, head of the Council for National Policy, a networking group for conservative activists. Baldwin made his feelings clear about the top three Republican contenders -- former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- by wearing a black badge reading "RudyMcRomney" with a giant red slash through it.
"There is an enormous amount of skepticism about the declared candidates. I've never seen anything like it," said Mark Corallo, a Republican communications consultant and a former Capitol Hill and Justice Department spokesman.
And yet, it is Giuliani - so demonstrably liberal on social issues like abortion and gay marriage that he isn't even trying to act like he's not - who leads the pack among Republicans generally and even among conservatives.
From today's Washington Post story, headlined Giuliani Has No Real Chance ... Or Does He?:
Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he has encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him as a possible Republican nominee. The issue is whether that appeal can survive a long campaign in which Giuliani's New York record, his position on issues, his three marriages and his complex business dealings will be subjected to withering scrutiny.
"It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment," Ayres said. "There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don't believe that. I think there's more to this than simply name ID."
The WaPo story is an intriguing and thoughtful look at how Giuliani may be able to do what conventional wisdom says he can not. But the poll data in the story also suggests that even the surging Giuliani may be susceptible to a late challenge from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a hero to conservative Republicans who may yet step into the presidential race.
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Giuliani leading McCain 44 percent to 21 percent, with Gingrich at 15 percent, ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 4 percent. A month ago, Giuliani's lead was much narrower: 34 percent to 27 percent over McCain, so he is widening his lead over McCain.
However, without Gingrich in the field, the most recent poll showed Giuliani's margin over McCain was 53 percent to 23 percent. If Gingrich enters the race, he slices 9 points off Giuliani's lead McCain and pulls Giuliani under the 50 percent mark. It's early, of course, and a well-funded Romney campaign could scramble the numbers, just as a McCain collapse could or a surge by one of the lesser-known candidates in the field.
Might a Giuliani-Gingrich ticket be a dream ticket for the GOP?
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