Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Influential conservative activist Richard Viguerie is urging conservative Republicans to hold off on selecting a candidate to support for the Republican presidential nomination.

As Joseph Curl reported in the Tuesday Washington Times:

Some conservatives searching for a new Ronald Reagan are rejecting "Rudy McRomney" and seeking an alternative Republican presidential candidate, opening the door to dark-horse hopefuls, including former Sen. Fred Dalton Thompson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Still reeling from losses in the midterm congressional elections last year, nearly 6 in 10 Republicans said in a recent poll that they want more choices for November 2008. Many conservatives are displeased with the trio of candidates dominating press coverage of the Republican 2008 field -- former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

"None of these candidates in the first tier or second tier have done anything that would convict them of being a conservative leader," said Richard A. Viguerie, author of "Conservatives Betrayed."

"Conservatives should withhold their support from all of the presidential wannabes at this point in time. Not one of them has provided conservative leadership on issues of importance to us in the last 10 years, so why should we support them at this time?" he said.

There are two kinds of conservatives as far as the GOP presidential field is concerned - conservatives who are looking for the most authentically conservative candidate, and conservatives who are looking for the most conservative candidate who can win the general election.

Voters in the first group haven't yet found a candidate, while voters in the second group are choosing amongst McCain, Giuliani and Romney...

Each of the "big three" have enough conservative "stuff" in their record to win over some people in the second group - Giuliani cut taxes in New York, was tough on crime and is seen as a leader who won't shrink from the war on terror; McCain's also right on the war and solidly pro-life; and Romney stood against gay marriage and for cutting taxes in the liberal bastion of Massachusetts. But none is a complete conservative, hence the reluctance of the first group to gravitate toward any of them.

Yet the dismal poll numbers for the more conservative candidates outside the Big Three - Brownback, Huckabee, Gilmore, Hunter, etc. - tells you that the group of conservatives seeking a conservative who can win in November is actually quite large, while the group of conservatives just looking for the most authentically conservative candidate is smaller.

And yet the fact that none of the Big Three is running away with the race also tells you that the group of conservatives seeking a conservative who can win in November is not yet convinced that any of the three can win the general election. Judging from the polls, Giuliani is doing best with this group, and Romney is doing the worst - though Romney's stock is rising and McCain's is falling.

All of that bodes well for someone like Fred Thompson, whose rating from the American Conservative Union is conservative enough, and who is widely perceived as a candidate who can win - and maybe even win big - in November 2008.