Mike Allen at The Politico reports that "surprising fundraising totals, combined with a couple of notable gaffes last week, have reshuffled the presidential field and prompted top-tier candidates in both parties to make at least minor -- and in some cases more substantial -- alterations to their strategies." He's got details of changes in the campaigns of John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney on the GOP side.
Allen says "familiar assumptions about who is inevitable and who is simply treading water have been dislodged since the recent close of the first-quarter fundraising period.
But one "familiar assumption survives, and Allen's article in The Politico proves it: the assumtion that Mitt Romney is one of the "big three" on the Republican side. In fund-raising, yes, but not in the polls of likely voters. Romney has proved he can raise lots of cash, but he hasn't proven he can attract significant support. Right now, there is a "Big Two" in the GOP race, and a "Medium One" - Romney. And if Fred Thompson gets into the race, most or all of that will change, too.
Update: A reader writes in the comments that that latest Zogby poll in New Hampshire has Romney tied with McCain in that state, so he isn't as behind in the polls as I've described. Fair enough. Of course, Romney was the governor of a neighboring state, and New Hampshire's main media comes out of Boston, so I'd expect him to have high name recognition and better poll numbers in New Hampshire than nationally this early in the race. The main point still is that, nationally, Romney has been able to raise money but so far hasn't attracted significant support, is still true.
The latest Zogby poll for NH has Romney tied for first with McCain. Giuliani was next. If you look at the polls, Romney is doing better and better in the first primary states. The national polls are a bit misleading becuase he is not known everywhere yet. If you look where he is campaigning, he is rising in the polls. I feel that as the campaign drags on, and more people get his message, through debates etc. he will become more challenging for the other two. I like McCain, Brownback, Huckabee and even Fred Thompson as candidates. I am just pointing out what I feel your blog has been bias on. While I would find any of our candidates better than Hillary or Obama, I like straight shooting. Don't count Mitt out just yet. Otherwise, I like your page.
Posted by: Michael Calvert | April 10, 2007 7:29 PM | Permalink to Comment