"The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has started coming back to the pack after a surprisingly successful first quarter. John McCain has managed to hold his ground, and Fred Thompson appears to be the beneficiary of Rudy's retreat," says Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters. He continues...
Thompson had not been included in the polling until now, and the drop in Rudy's numbers might reflect the popularity of Thompson among conservatives looking for an electable alternative to the Mayor. He could just as easily have taken it from Newt Gingrich, though, who lost nine points from February and turned in his worst performance in the WaPo/ABC presidential poll so far, dropping down to 6%. Without Newt, though, Rudy still loses nine points in this poll and Fred gets 10%; without Fred, Rudy gets 37%. It appears most likely that Fred draws from Rudy's support.
Mitt Romney rebounded to tie Thompson, picking up five points in the last two month. Tommy Thompson remains at 2%, still with the rest of the field in being unable to beat No Opinion.
While I've long thought that Mitt Romney's campaign is the most vulnerable to a Fred Thompson challenge, it makes sense that Giuliani, too, is already seeing his numbers decline. Giuliani's main assets have been voters' sense that he is both a strong leader and can "win in November" - that is, beat Hillary Clinton or whomever the Democrats nominate. Those trumped the qualms that many conservatives had about Giuliani's liberalism on social issues. Against the unknown but well-funded Mitt Romney and against John McCain, whom conservatives are not passionate about, that was enough to make Giuliani the default choice.
But Fred Thompson is also viewed as a strong leader type, and as someone who can win in November - and his Senate record, while not perfectly conservative, is solid enough for conservatives.
Less understandable to me is why John McCain's numbers aren't taking more of a hit from the possible Fred Thompson candidacy. The Washington Post story on the poll says McCain's candidacy "has been buffeted by lackluster fundraising and his embrace of President Bush's troop surge policy in Iraq," though McCain "runs a solid second among GOP hopefuls." The writers of the story say "there is fresh evidence in the new survey that his focus on the war and on attracting conservative support have made him more polarizing as a potential general-election candidate."
Ah, that helps explain it. The WaPo/ABC poll is of likely voters, not just likely Republican voters. Naturally as McCain stakes out a "do or die" position on the war on terror he's going to become "more polarizing as a potential general-election candidate," because Republicans, generally, still support President Bush on the war, while Democrats, generally, don't. So McCain likely is gaining support among Republicans while losing it among Democrats who may have supported him in the past.
Indeed, the WaPo reports that, among "Republicans and Republican-leaning independents" surveyed in the poll, McCain's support held steady at 21 percent.
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