Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Is John McCain mounting a comeback on the campaign trail? Bill Bradley, who writes the New West Notes blog for Pajamas Media, thinks so.

With a lead in Nevada, a statistical tie in California, and a spirited performance at the first Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library outside Los Angeles earlier this month, Arizona Senator John McCain looks like the first comeback candidate of the campaign.

I've looked at the recent polls and while McCain's numbers have improved a bit, I'd hestitate to call it a surge or a comeback for the Arizona senator. He's benefitting a bit from Giuliani's slide in the polls, but he's not gaining significantly - and he's facing an increasingly tough challenge from the fast-rising Fred Thompson.

The real story isn't of McCain mounting a comeback charge, but of Giuliani's slide.

Bradley essentially admits this in his piece:

While most have thought that McCain is the candidate in trouble, it is actually Giuliani. He has not developed beyond his strong opening burst in February, and has slid sharply in most national polls since then. Little more than a month ago, he had a clear lead in Nevada. In this latest poll, he is fourth, albeit within a half-dozen points of the leader, McCain. His fundraising in the first quarter was strong, but no stronger than that of the third place Democrat, John Edwards. McCain, who seemed hyper in the begininng, delivered an effective performance at the Reagan Library, but Giuliani tended to fade into the woodwork, impressing only with a remarkably diffident answer on the fate of Roe v. Wade. This led him to refocus his campaign on his historical pro-choice stance, a risky move in the Republican primaries, especially the early ones.

If the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination was a children's story, it would be that of the turtle and the hare. Giuliani was the hare. It's not yet clear who among the rest of the field will be the turtle.