Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Ever watched the PGA golf tournament that comes on TV a week after the Master's? Usually it is won by some unknown golfer as most of the world's best golfers take the week off to rest after four grueling rounds at Augusta National.

The Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11 may be a bit like that.

Will former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani compete in the upcoming "straw poll" in Ames, Iowa, on August 11? Perhaps, or perhaps not - and that may well have an impact on the impact of the Ames straw poll, and even of the fabled first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses next January.

The Des Moines Register explains:

Thompson, who is expected to form a group this week to allow him to test the waters, has signaled GOP officials in Iowa that he would campaign for the caucuses. ... But associates of the actor and politician say Thompson, who could formally enter the race as early as July, say he has not decided whether to compete in the Ames straw poll in August, an early measure of support in Iowa that could serve to winnow the Republican field.

Thompson plans to open an organization Friday that would allow him to raise money and travel while weighing a presidential bid. Should he officially declare his candidacy later this summer, he would enter a campaign already steaming ahead in Iowa. More than a half-dozen campaigns are in full gear with more than seven months until the caucuses are scheduled to launch the nominating season.

Thompson’s uncertainty about the straw poll is the latest question mark about Iowa’s role in a newly compressed nominating calendar. It also comes as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani nears his own decision about whether to commit the money and organizational effort preparing for the Aug. 11 event.

Giuliani has said he plans to compete in Iowa but is also concentrating on the more than 20 populous states planning to hold their primaries on Feb. 5. The caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14.

The straw poll is expected to draw tens of thousands of GOP activists and scores of news media. It could also be an early sign of campaign strength in Iowa. That would depend on who competes and a Giuliani no-show in Ames could give Thompson cover to do the same, Thompson aides said.

A number of second-tier candidates are viewing the August 11 Ames straw poll as a chance to demonstrate some strength and perhaps rise to the top of the second tier. But if top-tier contenders like Giuliani and Fred Thompson skip the Ames straw poll, the value of winning it, especially for a second-tier candidate, won't be viewed by the news media as being as much of a "breakout" success.

If Giuliani and Thompson skip it, you may see the well-funded Mitt Romney campaign and the increasingly desperate John McCain campaign compete hard to win the Ames straw poll, but, again, winning a contest skipped by half of the major competition isn't a very impressive feat.

According to the May 21 Des Moines Register, McCain called the Ames event a "meaningless exercise" in 1999 when he bypassed campaigning for the caucuses during his first campaign for president - but, this year, "McCain's is among the better-organized campaigns in Iowa this year and is waging an all-out effort for Ames in August."

The latest Des Moines Register poll has Romney ahead in Iowa among likely Republican voters, with 30 percent, compared to 18 percent for McCain and 17 percent for Giuliani, and according to the Deseret News, Romney's campaign has made the Ames Straw Poll a huge priority:

Romney's early success, according to advisers, supporters, political analysts and Republican activists, is due in large part to his aggressive and well-organized campaign operation in Iowa.

He has flooded airwaves statewide with early TV ads, the only leading candidate to do so. He has inundated voters with campaign fliers and DVDs containing a hagiographical video. He has visited the state repeatedly. And he has spent the past few years strategically courting key party players, doling out campaign cash to county GOP groups and local candidates.

These are precisely the organizational strengths Romney needs to succeed in the first true Iowa test, which comes this summer: an August straw poll in Ames that will set the course of the race here for the rest of the year.

The importance of the straw poll is evident at Romney's Iowa headquarters in Urbandale, where there are two countdowns on the walls - one showing the number of days to the projected date of the caucuses, Jan. 14, and one showing the days until Aug. 11, a Saturday, when the straw poll will draw 50,000 Republican activists to Iowa State University.

But if Giuliani and Fred Thompson skip the Ames straw poll, a Romney win would be devalued, while a Romney loss - or even a win by a close margin over a second-tier candidate, would be devastating to his campaign. Ditto for McCain.