Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Power Line spots a Mitt Romney surge - and says Fred Thompson missed his chance to deliver a knockout blow to Romney's campaign by waiting three months to enter the race:

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney's support among Republicans at 16 percent. That's double his share from a few months ago. It also surpasses John McCain's share of 15 percent, and puts him within shouting distance of Rudy Giuliani (25 percent).

Romney's surge isn't all that surprising. He's an able and attractive candidate, and (in part for this reason) a very well-funded one.

Romney has also benefited from some good luck. First, the latest round of activity on the immigration front appears to have hurt McCain. I suspect that McCain was always likely to take a hit over this issue and others where he stands outside the mainstream of his party. But it was important to Romney that the hit occur this spring when he, not Fred Thompson, might be the main beneficiary.

This leads to the second and key piece of Romney luck -- Fred Thompson's non-entry to date. If Thompson had entered in March when Romney was on the ropes, it might have represented a knock-out blow. Instead, Romney has had a three-month window in which to make his case as the conservative candidate in the field. Although it's far from clear that Romney has obtained that status, there can be no doubt that he's made substantial headway.

Meanwhile, John McCain's camp is crowing about new polls from the American Research Group which finds him leading in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina among sample groups that include independents as well as Republicans. Which means that McCain is popular with people who don't consider themselves Republicans, hardly a big asset when you're running for the Republican nomination.