Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Michael Gerson, former speechwriter for President George W. Bush, says there's political danger ahead for the Republican Party in the immigration reform debate.

For a certain kind of conservative, any attempt to grant a legal status to illegal immigrants is as welcome as salsa on their apple pie. One conservative commentator claims that the law is "going to erase America" -- an ambition even beyond Ted Kennedy's considerable powers. Another laments that " white America is in flight" -- and presumably not just to Jackson Hole or Nantucket for the summer.

At one level, any immigration debate concerns a raw political calculation: Who ends up with more voters? Conservative critics of the Senate bill argue that because most Latinos identify themselves as Democrats, a larger pool of American Latinos will mean that Republicans are voted into irrelevance. Most Republican political strategists respond: That is closer than you think. Given current demographic realities, Republicans cannot rely on their white base alone. If a Republican presidential candidate doesn't get about 40 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, he or she doesn't stand much of a chance on an electoral map where Florida and the Southwest figure prominently. A nativist party will cease to be a national party.

Breaking 40 percent is possible for Republicans. President Bush did it in 2004. Republican momentum among Hispanic voters has been strong in the past decade -- until Rep. Tom Tancredo and his allies began their conflict with the fastest-growing segment of the electorate.

Conceding Latinos to the Democrats in perpetuity is a stunning failure of political confidence. If the Republican Party cannot find ways to appeal to natural entrepreneurs, with strong family values, who are focused on education and social mobility, then the GOP is already dead.

I don't happen to like the current proposed immigration bill, but that doesn't mean I want the GOP to become a nativist party. The GOP is the natural home of Latino immigrants, who largely come here for all the right reasons - to chase the American dream, to build a future, to start a business or get a job, to raise their families and seek a better life. Latino immigrants are natural conservatives - they only become Democrats when they get sucked into welfare programs.

What is needed is an enforceable fence, yes, but also a wide gate. And the fence must be built before we talk about giving any sort of "path to citizenship" to the 12 million who are already here illegally.

The reason for that is simple: Congress told us in the 1980s as they gave amnesty to 3 million illegals that we would get control of our borders. They failed to deliver. They can't be trusted to deliver this time.

And Congress last year promised 700 miles of fence, but the new immigration reform bill delivers barely more than half of that. We feel lied to again. 

We don't need a compromise immigration reform bill that attempts to deal with both border security and the 12 million who are already here. That kind of political deal results in less border protection and a too-easy path to citizenship. The 12 million aren't going anywhere - we can deal legislatively with their status later. Build the fence - the whole fence - first.

I'm pretty sure, Congress, that if you authorize and fully fund the complete fence, that as soon as it is completed that millions of Americans who are currently very uneasy with the flood of illegal immigration will feel much more confident and be much more willing to consider whatever "path to citizenship" and "guest-worker" program you wish to come up with.

But first, the fence.