The New York Times looks at Fred Thompson's impact on the Republican presidential field.
Anthony Carbonetti, an adviser to Rudy Giuliani, downplayed any concern in the Giuliani campaign that Thompson might, as the NYT writers put it, "run strongly among voters who are deeply concerned about national security and want a candidate who is socially conservative as well." Giuliani, they note, supports abortion rights.
Thompson's voting record in his eight years in the Senate was solidly pro-life.
In an online blog today, the NYT reports that "at least one Republican campaign also held a brief strategy session Wednesday to review poll results on Mr. Thompson’s performance when matched up against the various Republican candidates, according to two advisers in the campaign.
The NYT blog continued, "Even as an unannounced candidate, Mr. Thompson appeared well-positioned in those surveys, the advisers said."This degree and immediacy of interest in Mr. Thompson’s trajectory reflected the depth of concern across the rival Republican campaigns in the former senator’s potential appeal across the South, with conservative and evangelical voters, and among Republican primary voters who — after five months of campaigning — have yet to embrace one of the candidates.
“In a matter of weeks we’ll know if Fred Thompson instantly becomes a top-tier candidate, and my bet is that he does,” said a senior adviser to one of the leading Republican candidate, who was granted anonymity in exchange for his campaign’s assessment of Mr. Thompson.
“Our polling shows that Thompson cuts into our vote and pretty much everyone else’s vote, and also pulls from the undecided,” this adviser said. “A guy who can pull votes from everyone shows that he is not some narrow or single-issue candidate.”
When you look at the various polls you realize that, when you add up all the support currently going to the seven second-tier candidates and other non-announced candidates and combine it with Thompson's numbers, there's plenty of potential for Thompson to vault instantly into second place if not the lead.
Bill, here is my reasoning (all anecdotal, so "cum granis salis"):
Romney: There is simply not a comfort level with him amongst his supporters. Whether its "Multiple Choice", Mormonism (sad but true) or the "he seems fake and we had enough of that in Bush" factor, he has people that are there only because he was the *only* announced conservative with a chance to win. Thompson pulls from that group heavily - and that will grab some points from Romney.
Guiliani: As noted on Hewitt, the "Al Davis" (Just win baby!) Republicans are his core. Now the "Al Davis" social conservatives have a viable alternative with a broad reach across the party. So the large chunk of Giuliani supporters who were holding their nose over his abortion and gun stances now have a place to jump. And jump they will, over to Fred.
McCain - strong advocates for the war who part company with McCain over the amnesty/immigration issues now have a candidate they can support that better matches their concerns. Plus Thompson getting money chokes it off for McCain at a key time. Perceived losses by McCain will cause his people to defect, and the newest "strong horse" will be Thompson. So McCain loses people on different things to Thompson.
Plus from all 3, Thompson can believably pull off the "Outsider" campaign and run against Bush, which counters any Dem moves in that area.
Second Tier: No Money, No Funny. Thompson will dry up the money for the second tier. Gilmore, Brownback, etc are goners. It is kind of sad for Huckabee though, just when he was gaining traction to move up to edge of the front runners tier.
Other than single issue Tancredo and net-kook Paul, none of the second tier will survive much longer unless they are running for VP (Possibly Hunter and Huckabee in that capacity).
Best possible ticket for Repubs based on candidates now in it?
Thompson/Romney
Thompson/Hunter
Best wild guesses I've heard?
Thompson/Watts (JC Watts, rock solid conservative and an inspirational public speaker)
Thompson/Steele (good orator and campaigner, and conservative as well)
Posted by: Ordinary Coloradan | May 31, 2007 9:58 AM | Permalink to Comment