Following up on a previous post about the upcoming Ames Straw Poll in Iowa August 11, it turns out that Fred Thompson's name may be on the straw poll ballot whether he decides to compete in the event or not.
So reports Jonathan Martin at The Politico.
Although the poll is barely two-and-a-half months away, it is not too late for a candidate to make his case, [Iowa GOP executive director Chuck] Laudner argued.
Then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the straw poll in August of 1999 by a convincing 2,500 votes over his nearest competitor, Laudner pointed out, and he didn’t visit Iowa or open an office in the state until June. He also had supporters urging him against playing in the straw poll for fear that a bad showing could damage a perception of strength.
"The field isn’t set yet," Laudner noted, and much can be done in the next two months. But after Ames, "the conversation turns from who’s in to who’s going to get out."
The Bush win shows that someone can win the Ames straw poll despite entering the race only weeks before. But is Thompson too far behind to do what Bush did?
Bob Waters at the Iowans for Fred Thompson blog, says, "Don't be deceived by that poll showing Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani essentially tied (within the margin of error) here in Iowa at somewhere between sixteen and twenty per cent, and Fred Thompson (as yet unannounced, unfunded, and unorganized) trailing at ten."
Why? Because "the same poll shows that 71% of potential Republican voters are dissatisfied with the candidates who have announced already."
Says Waters, "When a guy gets ten percent of potential caucusgoers even before he does announce, you have to think that things are looking rosey for his prospects when he does."
A.C. Kleinheider, meanwhile, has some further thoughts on whether Thompson will compete in the Ames straw poll August 11 or not - and why Mitt Romney pretty much has to win the thing no matter what.
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