Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Rudy Giuliani still leads the race for the GOP nomination but now enjoys support from only 30 percent of "likely voters," in the latest Rasmussen poll (PDF file). That's down seven points from seven weeks ago. But that's only half of the big story of the poll.

The other half is this: Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who isn't even officially in the race, is tied for second place at 14 percnt with Arizona Sen. John McCain, who actually is running and has been for months.

Rasmussen says McCain, "once considered the dominant frontrunner, has struggled in recent months," and McCain's support among likely GOP primary voters "has fallen eight percentage points since January." McCain is doing better with independents who are likely to vote in the Republican primary than he is doing with actual Republicans.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the only other GOP candidate in double digits in the Rasmussen poll - he's at 12 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, not officially in the race, is in 5th place with eight percent.

Thompson's numbers are strong for an undeclared candidate - strong enough that, I believe, it will prevent Gingrich from entering the race. When you add up the support for all the single-digit candidates from Gingrich on down the list there is up to 30 percentage points of potential support for Thompson if he enters the race and Gingrich declines to run, and the also-rans begin to exit the race.

Giuliani's 30 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll is 7 percentage points below where he stood in mid-March. McCain, meanwhile, has been mired in the teens since late January. Giuliani has, I believe, hit what is at least a temporary cieling on his upward surge in the polls, as he's reached the limit on the number of GOP conservatives who are willing to back him in the primaries despite his liberal social views. Some of them may be deserting him now for Thompson, or Romney, whose numbers are showing small signs of improvement. 

I have long thought that Thompson entering the race would rapidly clear the field of most of the also-rans (though probably not Tom Tancredo, whose candidacy is less about winning the White House than it is about pressing the illegal immigration issue). I have also surmised that Thompson's candidacy would devastate Mitt Romney's chances because Thompson will be more acceptable to conservatives, who dominate the primary process, than Romney, thanks to Romney's flip-floppery on various issues.

I could be wrong, as it appears that the two candidates suffering the most from the prospective Thompson bid at least in this early stage are Giuliani and McCain. If that's the case, the big question is ... what is Thompson's prospective candidacy doing to their fundraising.

We won't know the answer to that for another two months.