Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

On the heels of yesterday's CNN/Opinion Research poll that showed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's plummeting support comes a new USA Today/Gallup poll today with much better numbers for Giuliani. USA Today/Gallup has him leading John McCain 34-20, with Fred Thompson in third place at 13 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 8 percent and Mitt Romney at 7 percent.

The CNN poll had Giuliani leading McCain 25-23, with Thompson in third place with 13 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 10 percent.

Why the big difference?

CNN/Opinion Research polled Republicans. USA Today/Gallup polled "Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party," a polling sample which favors the more liberal Giuliani and disfavors more conservative Republicans like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

But "independents who lean to the Republican Party" are less likely to vote in Republican primaries and caucuses than hardcore Republicans. Of the two polls, I'd lean toward the CNN poll as the more accurate regarding the status of each candidate in the race for the Republican nomination.

Interestingly, Fred Thompson is at 13 percent in both samples, indicating he, like Giuliani, appeals to independents as well as Republicans. Although eight years ago McCain was beloved by independents, today his support drops when independents are included in the sample.

The takeaway from comparing the two polls: Of all the candidates in the GOP field, only Giuliani and Thompson at this point can be described as candidates with the needed mojo among independents to win in November - and Thompson is a serious threat to Giuliani's nomination chances.