Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

The Politico has the must-read story of the day, suggesting that social conservatives are increasingly backing a presidential candidate who isn't.

Rudy Giuliani, whose positions on abortion and homosexuality mark him as the most socially liberal Republican presidential candidate in more than a generation, is so far winning the contest for the support of social conservatives, according to a new analysis of recent polls.

Widespread perceptions that Giuliani is the most electable Republican in this year's field are driving his support among social conservatives, according to the analysis by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

If the trend holds, this apparent willingness to support a candidate who fails what were once regarded as litmus-test issues would mark a landmark shift in the political behavior of a constituency that has been a pillar of the modern GOP. Already the shift is spurring sharp debate among prominent Christian conservative leaders, some of whom warn that Giuliani backers are abandoning core principles.

The Politico says 44 percent of social conservatives in the Pew analysis believe that the former New York mayor has the "best chance" of becoming president in 2008, while only 19 percent believe Sen. John McCain is the most viable Republican for the general election - even though twice as many social conservatives believe McCain "comes closest" to their view on abortion than believe that of Giuliani.

The willingness of social conservatives to back Giuliani despite his liberal views on social issues "has frustrated one of this year's GOP candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has been counting on his own socially conservative views and background as a minister to be a political springboard," says The Politico. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney also is failing to enthuse social conservatives.

"A significant number of social conservatives have adopted a pragmatic line," says John Green, a senior fellow at Pew who compiled the polling. "Pragmatism can be seen on the one hand as a good thing, because it produces results, and on other the hand it can be seen as a bad thing because it involves compromising one's principles, and that's just a tension social conservatives have had since the days of Ronald Reagan."

Giuliani's image as a strong leader against terrorism is described as trumping his liberal social views with social conservatives. So, that's it then, Giuliani's going to win the nomination, right?

Not so fast. First, the story notes that Romney "is ahead in Iowa" in some polls, so apparently Giuliani's support among social conservatives isn't all that strong yet. Let's look at the numbers:

Giuliani is winning 30 percent of the social conservative bloc, compared to 22 percent for McCain. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney captured just 8 percent -- a figure that puts Romney in fourth place, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is currently not a declared candidate.

Thirty percent. That means 70 percent of social conservatives aren't backing him, yet. That's a mighty big opening for a candidate to come along and convince social conservatives of three things: He's with them on the social issues, strong on the terrorism/national security side of things, and can win in November.

Is there such a candidate? The Politico: "Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson could be an appealing figure to the religious right, but he has yet to enter the race."

Fred Thompson wasn't included in the Pew polls analysis that formed the foundation of the story.

The Politico is being over eager to crown Rudy king among social conservative voters. More than two thirds of them don't back him, and they aren't loving anyone else in the field, either. That leaves a huge opening for Fred Thompson, or Gingrich, either of whom entering the race would radically alter the field.