In a presidential campaign cycle that started way too early, the advantges of being an undeclared-yet-plainly-interesting noncandidate are becoming more obvious every day. John Fund, writing at OpinionJournal.com, looks at the noncandidate candidates and "the art of not running for president," and concludes that, "This year, the assumption that the best way to run for president is to, well, run for president might go by the boards."
Everyone agrees on the negatives of being a noncandidate. Rivals scoop up cash, campaign talent and endorsements while noncandidates sit and wait. But for the already well-known, there are advantages to being "outside the ring." While official candidates are scrutinized relentlessly for gaffes and battered by "independent" opposition groups, noncandidates can be selective in their media exposure and appear high-minded.
Playing hard-to-get also creates allure and curiosity. Today noncandidates appeal to both parties. Depending on the poll, between one-third and three-fifths of Republicans are dissatisfied with their current crop of candidates. Last month, a straw poll at the Oklahoma Republican Party's convention saw noncandidates Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich top the field with a majority of the votes between them. Democrats are more happy with their field, but persistent doubts about Hillary Clinton's electability or Barack Obama's seasoning fuels speculation that Al Gore or some other savior will enter the race.
Professional campaign consultants and strategists should pay close attention to this next part:
In 2000, blogger Mickey Kaus refined the Feiler Faster Thesis, which holds that though news cycles are constantly getting faster, "people are comfortable processing that information with what seems like breathtaking speed." This rapid pace may be transforming presidential politics. Voters aren't waiting for pundits to tell them who is running for president, and shadow candidates can run low-cost guerilla campaigns using the Internet, talk shows and word-of-mouth. "Candidates have been running so long already it opens up opportunities for late entries," says Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit.com. "We may not like it, but voter boredom may now be a driver of politics."
Indeed. By the time the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries roll around early next year, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and the rest of the current GOP field will have been on the campaign trail for more than a year. That's a long time to be in front of voters demanding their time, attention, money and vote.
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