Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

The writer of the Colorado for Thompson blog, who goes by the online name "Ordinary Coloradan," has written an analysis of how he thinks Fred Thompson's entry into the Republican presidential field will affect the other candidates in the race.

Romney: There is simply not a comfort level with him amongst his supporters.  Whether its "Multiple Choice", Mormonism (sad but true) or the "he seems fake and we had enough of that in Bush" factor, he has people that are there only because he was the *only* announced conservative with a chance to win.  Thompson pulls from that group heavily - and that will grab some points from Romney.

Guiliani: As noted on Hewitt, the "Al Davis" (Just win baby!) Republicans are his core. Now the "Al Davis" social conservatives have a viable alternative with a broad reach across the party. So the large chunk of Giuliani supporters who were holding their nose over his abortion and gun stances now have a place to jump. And jump they will, over to Fred.

McCain - strong advocates for the war who part company with McCain over the amnesty/immigration issues now have a candidate they can support that better matches their concerns.  Plus Thompson getting money chokes it off for McCain at a key time.  Perceived losses by McCain will cause his people to defect, and the newest "strong horse" will be Thompson.  So McCain loses people on  different things to Thompson.

Plus from all 3, Thompson can believably pull off the "Outsider" campaign and run against Bush, which counters any Dem moves in that area.

Second Tier: No Money, No Funny. Thompson will dry up the money for the second tier. Gilmore, Brownback, etc are goners.  It is kind of sad for Huckabee though, just when he was gaining traction to move up to edge of the front runners tier.

Other than single issue Tancredo and net-kook Paul, none of the second tier will survive much longer unless they are running for VP (Possibly Hunter and Huckabee in that capacity).

He speculates, too, on who might be the VP choice with Thompson heading the ticket, and suggests Romney or Duncan Hunter if the VP pick comes from the current field - though he'd prefer to see it be former congressman J.C. Watts, who he calls a "rock solid conservative and an inspirational public speaker," or former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a "good orator and campaigner, and conservative as well."

I'd be pleased with any of those four.