The latest Harris Interactive poll has Rudy Giuliani in the lead and John McCain tied with the rising Fred Thompson, while Mitt Romney appears to be suffering the most from Thompson's prospective candidacy, losing 6 points since a month ago while Thompson rose five points. McCain remains unchanged, and Rudy lost a point.
At this point in the race, according to this poll, the "Big Three" in the GOP field are Giuliani, McCain and Thompson, and Thompson is the only candidate with serious positive momentum.
Right about now a Mitt Romney supporter is getting ready to send me an email or post a comment noting that Romney is leading in New Hampshire, home of the first-in-the-nation primary.
To which I say, so what. Winning in New Hampshire is less important this year than ever because of the slew of states - including big states like California, Florida and Texas - holding their primaries a week later. This year, you can lose New Hampshire to Romney, almost the hometown candidate - and obliterate him a week later by winning a few big states in the near-nationwide primary.
Romney's in serious trouble. He's likely to be the first of the original "Big Three" to become a casualty of Thompson's entry into the race.
You and Dick Morris seem to be of similar minds: that the state polls don't matter. Maybe if each is considered alone, that might be true, but it's the trend that is indicated by the state polls that is most important to recognize.
Romney was behind Giuliani and McCain in all the state polls...until he started really campaigning in those early states. Now that he has had success in building his name recognition and the people of those states have gotten to know him, he has taken over the lead in both New Hampshire and Iowa.
The national poll is actually the one that deserves a "so what" at this point, this early in the game, because he hasn't really even started to campaign on the national level yet, not the same way he has in those early states. So mark my words: as these debates continue, as we get closer to November, Romney will emerge as the clear choice for the Republicans.
Posted by: Ryan | May 19, 2007 8:32 AM | Permalink to Comment