Is the Rudy Giuliani campaign starting to lose momentum? Patrick Hynes, who works for John McCain's campaign, passes along a blog post at TownHall.com that mentions a new Cook Poll that shows Giuliani is leading McCain by 7 points. That's a decent lead, but, says TownHall.com blogger Matt Lewis, "McCain appears to be showing a significant upward trend." According to pollster.com, the numbers represent a drop in Guiliani's lead over McCain from 17 points (34% to 17%) a month ago.
I'm not surprised. It's early - waaaaaay early - in this race and no candidate should think that a big lead is safe this far out from the election. For one thing, the field isn't even set yet. For another, real-world events can and likely will alter the big issues, which can alter the standings in the race.
Giuliani's numbers were not going to continue inexorably upward until the primaries in early 2008 - he wasn't going to win 100 percent of the vote. He surged as John McCain faltered and Mitt Romney struggled with the flip-flopper tag thanks to old videos that popped up on YouTube. But McCain didn't get to be a three-term senator by not knowing how to win elections, and Romney's got far too much business executive experience combined with his experience in two political campaigns and as governor of Massachusetts to not be able to turn his fundraising prowess into a reasonably effective campaign. His numbers have room to grow.
The wildcard - and maybe the cause of Giuliani's loss of momentum - is the sruging possibility of a Fred Thompson candidacy. Giuliani's rapid sprint to the front was powered by his celebrity and his acknowledged leadership traits, but his liberalism on social issues still makes him a candidate conservatives - who will decide the nomination - uneasy. His principal advantage, and the reason some (but not all) conservatives were leaning toward supporting him is that he is perceived as able to defeat Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or whomever the Democrats nominate.
McCain and Romney aren't viewed as optimistically by as many Republican voters.
But Thompson, he is. And he's more conservative than Giuliani and doesn't have the messy tabloid-ready private life.
Thompson says he might run and Giuliani's momentum disappears. It's not a coincidence.
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