MSNBC.com has the video of Thursday night's Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library. Who won? I think that's in the eye of the beholder, and depends on how you defining winning.
For my money, among the "Big Three" candidates - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney - McCain and Romney won by not losing and Giuliani lost by not winning. What do I mean? Giuliani did little to distinguish himself as one would think a heavyweight front-runner would do. McCain looked tough, but delivered no knockout punch. Romney looked like he belonged in the top tier. Between McCain and Romney, I'd give the slight edge to Romney.
Among the remaining seven candidates - Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, Ron Paul, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, and Mike Huckabee - I'd list Paul, Thompson, Hunter and Brownback as losers. Tancredo and Huckabee were the winners of the second-tier seven, and Gilmore broke even (which, for a candidate with low name recognition and funds maybe counts as a win).
Among the losers, Paul came across as wacky - he's GOP's Dennis Kucinich.
Among the second-tier winners, Tancredo won by presenting himself as more than a Johnny-one-note on immigration, and Huckabee came across as a knowledgable guy on a broad range of issues and with an optimistic approach.
Instapundit has a big round-up of links to post-debate reaction and analysis on the blogs.
Yesterday's New York Sun has the last poll before the debate, a Quinnipiac Poll which shows Giuliani's lead shrinking sharply, while McCain and Romney held steady and the unannounced candidate Fred Thompson suddenly jumping into third place. Thompson's possible entry into the race appears to be rapidly undermining Giuliani's campaign. It will be interesting to see if Giuliani's numbers improve after the debate. I don't think they will - Giuliani's strength had been that he is seen as a candidate able to win the general election, but his weak answers on abortion last night will not set will with social conservatives, who see Fred Thompson as also able to win in November.
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