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Jun13
Ames Still Matters ... Differently

The Green Mountain Politics blogs says the Ames, Iowa, straw poll on August 11 is Mike Huckabee's big chance, given that of the Big Four GOP candidates - Rudy, Fred, Romney and McCain - only Romney is playing for keeps in Ames.

Yes, it is true that Team McCain and Team Giuliani (and probably Team Thompson) will downplay the significance of the Ames straw poll. And, they will have a relatively strong argument.

Which will be counter-balanced (to some degree) by Team Romney who will be jumping up and down screaming that the Ames straw poll is the most important event humankind has ever witnessed.

So the top 3 candidates won't take any advantage away from Ames. That narrative is already (more or less) written. And, most importantly to Huckabee, that narrative is already stale.

GMP says that with Romney expected to win the Ames poll, the media "will be looking (begging, pleading, snarling!) for a fresh Ames straw poll narrative to blast across the slow August news cycle."

And they are right.

Might we suggest "Huckabee Places Strong Second In Ames Straw Poll!"

Which is entirely possible in the new Straw Poll environment. Which is a headline that never (ever, ever!) would have been possible for Huckabee if McCain and Giuliani were still competing against Romney in Ames.

And it is a headline (and narrative) that will light a fire under Huck's candidacy unlike anything he has seen to date.

You think they gave you lemons Mr. Huckabee. But they really gave you lemonade.

Good analysis. McCain and Giuliani are skipping Ames because, A) they think Romney with his money and big ground operation is going to win it and, B) they want to devalue winning it by not participating while simultaneously setting Romney up to fail to "meet expectations" if, somehow, his winning margin isn't all that impressive. Thompson is skipping Ames largely because he hasn't even entered the race yet, so he doesn't have time to compete on a scale necessary to give Romney a run for it. And it helps devalue Ames even further for Romney.

But by doing so, McCain, Giualiani and Thompson have left the door open for someone - Huckabee, perhaps - to steal a victory even by placing a strong second to Romney.

Ames still matters - just not the way it would have if three of the Big Four hadn't decided to skip it.

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» You Bet Ames Still Matters...To Iowa State from TheDemoMemo
My counterpart on the Know More Media Network, ElephantBiz author Bill Hobbs commented today on the significance of the Ames, Iowa republican straw poll in August.True, the straw poll does attract the most conservative of the rabid republicans in the... [Read More]

The irony is that, of all people, Ron Paul might make a splash. If they can muster their internet numbers to any degree, they can make a bigger blip on the radar, just like they have done in snowing the online polls.

And if I were one of the other top candidates, I would be considering giving Ron Paul a boost in doing so. Why? Because a strong showing by a fringe candidate with no chance at the real nomination would show how useless and meaningless the Ames straw poll is - thereby negating Romney's win.

Just a thought as to an indirect strategy that would cause Romney's millions spent to end up being millions wasted.

This is going to be an interesting race. There is a great article about Thompson posted on my site: http://sistrunk.net/president-2008/white-house-08-161.php

A series of national polls conducted in the last few weeks show that former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) is a force to be reckoned with in the coming fight for the 2008 Republican nomination. What exactly does a Thompson supporter look like? Let’s Parse the Polls! We’ll start with the L.A. Times/Bloomberg survey, since that data is the freshest. Thompson’s strongest subgroup in this poll was among “religious” voters, where he lead the field with 32 percent; Giuliani received 12 percent, McCain took 11 percent and Mitt Romney stood at 10 percent. (The L.A. Times pollsters define a “religious” voter this way: Someone who takes “the Bible as literal word of God who is a self-identified conservative and a ‘non-Catholic Christian.’”) Thompson also runs well among men (he and Giuliani both took 30 percent) in the L.A. Times survey and with conservative Republicans, where Thompson was essentially tied with Giuliani — 26 percent to 24 percent, respectively. Eliminate all but the four leading candidates — Thompson, Giuliani, McCain and Romney — and the trend is even more clear. In that four-way race, Thompson’s lead expanded to 20 points over Giuliani among religious voters (42 percent to 22 percent), while his lead among conservative Republicans extended to nine (34 percent to 25 percent). And among men, Thompson remained in a virtual dead heat with Giuliani. Those numbers are backed up by the internals in the Post-ABC poll, where Thompson tended to run stronger among those who identified themselves as conservatives than among self-identified moderates, and better among men than women. Thompson’s two strongest demographic groups in the Post-ABC poll were married men, where he took 19 percent support (6 points higher than his overall showing among the general GOP electorate) and among people with a college degree, where he also received 19 percent support. All of the numbers seem to bear out the conventional wisdom surrounding Thompson’s candidacy — that he is the most electable conservative in the race

Now about Huckabee. He is starting to get traction in the Media (Mainly because of the debates).

Some positve things Huckabee needs to happen.

Raise 1 million in this quarter.
Finish second or third in the Iowa straw poll
Get Dobson, Land, and other Southern Baptist evangelist to endorse him
Avoid the issue of raising taxes
Watch the others fight

Huckabee has a slim chance of being the last man standing. He is a true dark horse.

Put his demeanor and experience with Duncan Hunter agenda and that is my perfect candidate.

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