
The Green Mountain Politics blogs says the Ames, Iowa, straw poll on August 11 is Mike Huckabee's big chance, given that of the Big Four GOP candidates - Rudy, Fred, Romney and McCain - only Romney is playing for keeps in Ames.
Yes, it is true that Team McCain and Team Giuliani (and probably Team Thompson) will downplay the significance of the Ames straw poll. And, they will have a relatively strong argument.
Which will be counter-balanced (to some degree) by Team Romney who will be jumping up and down screaming that the Ames straw poll is the most important event humankind has ever witnessed.
So the top 3 candidates won't take any advantage away from Ames. That narrative is already (more or less) written. And, most importantly to Huckabee, that narrative is already stale.
GMP says that with Romney expected to win the Ames poll, the media "will be looking (begging, pleading, snarling!) for a fresh Ames straw poll narrative to blast across the slow August news cycle."
And they are right.
Might we suggest "Huckabee Places Strong Second In Ames Straw Poll!"
Which is entirely possible in the new Straw Poll environment. Which is a headline that never (ever, ever!) would have been possible for Huckabee if McCain and Giuliani were still competing against Romney in Ames.
And it is a headline (and narrative) that will light a fire under Huck's candidacy unlike anything he has seen to date.
You think they gave you lemons Mr. Huckabee. But they really gave you lemonade.
Good analysis. McCain and Giuliani are skipping Ames because, A) they think Romney with his money and big ground operation is going to win it and, B) they want to devalue winning it by not participating while simultaneously setting Romney up to fail to "meet expectations" if, somehow, his winning margin isn't all that impressive. Thompson is skipping Ames largely because he hasn't even entered the race yet, so he doesn't have time to compete on a scale necessary to give Romney a run for it. And it helps devalue Ames even further for Romney.
But by doing so, McCain, Giualiani and Thompson have left the door open for someone - Huckabee, perhaps - to steal a victory even by placing a strong second to Romney.
Ames still matters - just not the way it would have if three of the Big Four hadn't decided to skip it.






» You Bet Ames Still Matters...To Iowa State from TheDemoMemo
My counterpart on the Know More Media Network, ElephantBiz author Bill Hobbs commented today on the significance of the Ames, Iowa republican straw poll in August.True, the straw poll does attract the most conservative of the rabid republicans in the... [Read More]
Tracked on: June 13, 2007 6:04 PM | Permalink to Trackback