Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Fred Thompson is in second place in the GOP presidential field, and nipping at John McCain's heels, according to the latest IPSOS poll. Ipsos asked "If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were .... for whom would you vote?" They asked the same question in a similar poll in March. Here is how the results compared from March to June:

                              June 4-6     March 3-5

Rudy Giuliani                27               35
John McCain                19               22
Fred Thompson            17               NA
Mitt Romney                10                 8
Newt Gingrich               7                11
Sam Brownback             3                 3
Mike Huckabee              2                 3
Other                          1                 -
None                           4                 6
(DK/NS)                       10               12


Ipsos asked, "Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these?" and 22 percent said "Republican," 36 percent said "Democrat," 25 percent said "independent," 16 percent said "none of these" and 1 percent were unsure.

Ipsos then asked, "Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a liberal, moderate or conservative?," and followed up by asking if they were "very" or "somewhat" liberal or conservative. Only 10 percent described themselves as "very liberal," while 14 percent said they were "very conservative." 16 percent said they were "somewhat liberal," 22 percent said they were "somewhat conservative," while 35 percent described themselves as "moderate", and three percent refused to answer. In all, 26 percent of the respondents characterized themselves as liberal while 36 percent said they were conservative.

What does it mean?

My sense is that the nation still leans more conservative than liberal politically, and the reason that Republican party identification is so low is that, at the national level, the Republican Party has not governed from conservative principles. A presidential candidate and congressional candidates who articulate conservative principles should still appeal to more of the electorate than candidates who espouse liberal principles.

That's the good news for true-conservative Republicans, especially conservative Republicans who have a demonstrated ability to appeal to moderates as well, the way Ronald Reagan did in the 1980s.

<b>Update</b>: Headline previously read "Thompson in Second Place." Mistake corrected.