Might Fred Thompson climb into first place in the race for the Republican presidential nomination even before he declares himself officially a candidate? The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has Thompson surging to second place well ahead of the fading former "front-runner" John McCain and the never-quite-got-hot Mitt Romney, and gaining on Rudy Giuliani, whose early '07 surge appears to be subsiding.
The LAT reports:
Republicans antsy for a conservative standard-bearer in the presidential race have begun to rally behind Fred Thompson, propelling the former Tennessee senator to within hailing distance of the lead for the party's nomination, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani holds first place in the survey, with support from 27% of the Republicans and independents who said they planned to vote in the party's 2008 primaries.
But Thompson, an actor who plays a prosecutor on NBC's "Law and Order," polled 21%. Indications are he will join the race within the next month.
The two other major GOP contenders, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, have fallen well short of the leaders and are in a battle for third place. McCain was backed by 12% of those polled, Romney by 10%. The rest of the crowded field is mired in single digits.
And likely to stay there...
Months ago, when rumors of a possible Thompson bid first began to richochet 'round the blogosphere, I wrote that Thompson entering the race would reshape the field, as Thompson in the race undermines the central rationale for both Romney and Giuliani. Giuliani's biggest selling point is that he's a Republican who can win in November. Romney's biggest selling point was that he was the only "true conservative" in the race who could beat Giuliani in the primaries.
Neither claim was ever wholly true, of course. Giuliani is a Republican on some issues, and rather liberal on others - which is what Romney's claim was meant to address. But Romney's evident flip-floppery on abortion and other issues undercut his own claim to be a "true conservative" - after all, if he's only moderately less liberal then Giuliani on some key social issues, his claim to be the best conservative alternative to Giuliani rings hollow.
McCain has his own prickly relationship with social conservatives - they don't trust him - and his record on non-social issues includes such non-conservative things as opposing President Bush on tax cuts, and authoring the McCain-Feingold "campaign finance reform" law that is an affront to conservative principles.
Along comes Thompson, with a 100 percent pro-life voting record, a solidly conservative overall voting record on everything from taxes to guns to foreign policy and defense, plus a "federalist" approach to governance that sets will with conservatives, a no-nonsense tell-it-like-it-is image, a willingness to admit he might have been wrong about McCain-Feingold, and communications skills the rest of the field can only dream of - and suddenly, Giuliani's assertion that he's the only one in the field who can beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is looking rickety indeed.
It looks like that is what is happening.
As for the rest of the field, none of them can beat Thompson in the "can win in November" race. Predictions are risky this early in a primary campaign, but the GOP race is now a two-man race between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.
Update: Fred Thompson is scheduled to appear on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno on Tuesday night. Check local listings. Word is he's not going to announce his candidacy on the show, officially, but of course it'll be discussed.
Comment Preview