The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are tied atop the Republican presidential field. Thompson and Giuliani each are at 24 percent in the 11-candidate field. One week ago, Giuliani had a six percentage point lead over Thompson, 23 percent to 17 percent.
Twice as many Republicans now view Thompson as "conservative" as think Giuliani is a conservative, which is good news for Thompson in the GOP primaries given that conservative voters tend to decide these things.
Rassmussen calls Thompson's rise in the polls "meteoric."
It is not unusual for a candidate to gain ground in the polls when they first announce their intentions. However, Thompson’s rise has been meteoric. It remains to be seen whether the reality of his candidacy can measure up to its allure as an alternative for those dissatisfied with the other candidates in the field. At the moment, 59% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their newest candidate. Just 14% hold an unfavorable opinion of Thompson while 27% are not sure.
Forty-two percent (42%) of Republicans view Thompson as politically conservative. Twenty-four percent (24%) see him as politically moderate, 3% say liberal and 30% are not sure. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Republicans view Giuliani as politically conservative (63% see the former Mayor of New York as politically moderate while 12% say liberal).
Just as startling as Thompson’s rise in this week’s poll is the continuing loss of support for Arizona Senator John McCain. The man once considered the dominant front runner in the race is now supported by just 11% of likely Republican Primary voters nationwide. That’s down from 17% in May and 14% a week ago. His support is just half of what it was in January.
McCain’s sharp decline in support came as an immigration reform measure dominated the news. McCain was one of the few vocal supporters of the legislation that was far more popular in Congress than among the American people. No other Republican Presidential candidate supported the bill that failed in the Senate last week. McCain is now viewed favorably by just 47% of voters in his home state of Arizona.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney slipped to 11% in this week’s poll and is tied with McCain. Prior to modest gains over the past few weeks, Romney had consistently been in the 10% to 12% range. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s (R) support is down to 7%. Gingrich has indicated that the odds are strongly against him entering the campaign. As a result, from this point forward, Rasmussen Reports is not including Gingrich in polling on the Republican Presidential nomination.
It's now a two-candidate race.
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