Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Former Sen. Fred Thompson now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination by one point over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. Meanwhile, the latest Mason-Dixon Poll in South Carolina shows Thompson has a four-point lead over Giuliani in that key early-primary state, while John McCain has fallen way behind.

McClatchy Newspapers, reporting on the Mason-Dixon Poll, said this about the South Carolina numbers and :

McCain, meanwhile, appeared to have lost many of his supporters to Thompson, and was far back in the GOP field.

Thompson leads 25 percent to 21 percent in South Carolina, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 11 percent and then McCain at 7 percent, just two points ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 28 percent undecided.

McClatchy Newspapers called the poll "striking evidence of Thompson’s rise from nowhere in early presidential readings to potential front-runner status," and reports that "Thompson's first campaign swing as he edges toward a formal candidacy will be in South Carolina on June 27."

Of McCain, the paper said...

"McCain’s slide into single digits might reflect his support for the immigration reform package, legislation that is unpopular among South Carolina Republicans. South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham was booed at a recent GOP state gathering when he sought to defend the reforms.

Mason-Dixon Poll managing director Brad Coker says McCain's "support among base Republicans is slipping away."

That tends to happen when you diss the base on a key issue.

RedState.com comments on the South Carolina numbers, which are a disaster for McCain, who had been working hard to lock up the state.

Consider that John McCain has been campaigning in South Carolina since 2000. He's devoted exceptional resources to the state and has not gotten the traction he hoped. And consider Mitt Romney who has even started running ads in South Carolina, which are apparently designed to keep him in place. They don't appear to be moving him upward right now.

Mason-Dixon is one of the most reputable and reliable polling firms in the country. If they have Fred Thompson in the lead in a state where he's made no major efforts and Romney and McCain trailing badly in a state where they have made significant tactical and strategic investments, this game is coming to a close sooner than most of us might have thought.

It would not surprise me to see McCain drop out around Labor Day, out of energy and money. Romney will stay in. He has the money and the desire to be President. But the race is more and more shaping up to be a Rudy v. Thompson race. And I suspect most of the shots we start seeing being fired at Fred will come from Massachusetts.

I predicted months ago that Fred Thompson entering the race would rapidly alter the dynamics of the race, and it is in fact doing that. The 11-candidate field will be halved by Labor Day. Although one of the second-tier candidates might yet emerge to challenge the front-runners, right now the main race is between Giuliani and Fred Thompson, with Romney fighting to hang on.