Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

This just in: Rudy Giuliani's campaign won't be playing to win in the Ames Straw Poll, August 11 in Ames, Iowa. As I explained before, that greatly devalues the Ames Straw Poll for the eventual winner, likely to be Mitt Romney, and probably increases the likelihood that Fred Thompson also will skip Ames.

If Giuliani and Thompson skip [the Ames Straw Poll], you may see the well-funded Mitt Romney campaign and the increasingly desperate John McCain campaign compete hard to win the Ames straw poll, but, again, winning a contest skipped by half of the major competition isn't a very impressive feat. ... If Giuliani and Fred Thompson skip the Ames straw poll, a Romney win would be devalued, while a Romney loss - or even a win by a close margin over a second-tier candidate, would be devastating to his campaign. Ditto for McCain.

The wildcard scenario that's got to be causing nightmares in many a campaign is this: If by some miracle Fred Thompson were to win the Ames straw poll without participating - as he won several straw polls across the country even before he entered the race - it would instantly transform the race for the GOP nomination into a two-man race between Fred and Rudy. And Rudy would be in second place.