Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

U.S. News reporter and blog-writer James Pethokoukis looks at the role of the economy in the 2008 elections, and says the spreading mortgage credit crisis may doom the GOP in '08.

But maybe not. After all, the economy is still growing - second quarter growth is estimated at a healthy 4 percent - and the global economic boom may help keep the U.S. economy out of recession.

Of course, things would be better, politically, for Republicans if the Bush administration had done a better job keeping Americans informed about the economic progress made by this administration.

Pethokoukis:

The nearly six-year Bush boom—"the greatest story never told," according to economist and CNBC host Larry Kudlow—has been a tangible accomplishment that the GOP candidates, including the party's eventual White House hopeful, could have trumpeted next year. It has a nice, understandable narrative, too. Faced with an imploding Internet stock bubble and corporate scandals, Bush slashed taxes in 2001 and 2003 and helped restart America's amazing growth machine.

The Bush economy has been humming along rather nicely for most of Bush's time in office. Handed an economy in recession, Bush turned things around rapidly with a series of tax cuts that fueled economic growth. The economy has, in turn, fueled record tax revenues for Uncle Sam and most state governments.

Of course, all that is at risk - and not just because of the "mortgage crisis," either.

Pethokoukis nails it:

The Dems this year seem to be more focused on economic security than on economic growth. And who knows, maybe a dicey economy might even help GOP-ers like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, with their records of turning around Massachusetts and New York City, though that seems a stretch. More likely is a vicious circle where a weak economy makes it more likely that a Democrat will take the Oval Office. And in a sort of feedback loop, the greater the likelihood of that happening, the more likely it is that the stock market and business will focus on the rising prospect of higher taxes and protectionist trade legislation.

Of course, fear of such Democratic economic policies would cause the private sector to invest less and hire fewer people, making the fear of an economic slowdown made worse by Democratic higher taxes and protectionist trade legislation - not to mention more mandates and regulations - a self-fulfilling fear.