Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Stephen Colbert's candidacy is continuing to generate talk among the media elite. In addition to drawing poll, a number of pundits have speculated on who is hurt the most by his candidacy (general consensus: the second tier).

But the most in depth look thus far comes from Joshua Green who examines the Colbert candidacy in detail. My favorite part is the prospect of Colbert making it to the convention(s):

The real threat to the rest of the field is the possibility that Colbert might win a delegate or two (and show up at one or both of the national conventions). Doing so won’t be easy. Republican delegates [in South Carolina] are awarded in each of the state’s six congressional districts on a winner-take-all basis, with additional delegates given to the overall state winner. So Colbert would have to crack 50 percent in at least one congressional district. The Democratic primary offers an easier path. You only have to get 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates.

In the Republican primary, Colbert should focus on the First District, which stretches along the coast from Colbert’s hometown of Charleston up to Myrtle Beach. Besides being most likely to respond to the “native son” gambit, the heavily conservative district’s voters tend to be upscale economic conservatives rather than social conservatives (Colbert’s appeal is stronger with the first group). The district also encompasses plenty of colleges and universities, including the Citadel, where Colbert’s “patriotism” might yield votes, provided no one spots the scare quotes. The district also has a pronounced weakness for political gimmicks. Its congressman, Republican Henry Brown, got elected in 2000 after distributing 20,000 “Oh Henry!” candy bars to boost name recognition.

In the Democratic primary, Colbert’s best bet is the Second District, which encompasses most of the capital city of Columbia, and, more important, has the highest concentration of college students. Though it’s less Democratic than the Sixth District, it has a far higher proportion of white voters, which, in a Democratic primary, is exactly who Colbert needs to target. Even better, Columbia is its own media market. Colbert probably won’t have Obama-like fundraising prowess. But an Internet campaign ought to be able to raise enough cash to run a few well-targeted ads.