A poll released yesterday in Iowa shows the Republican Presidential race in that state tightening.
Mitt Romney is leading with 29%, Fred Thompson is in second with 18%, and Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani round out the top four with 12% and 11%, respectively.
Romney, who has been blanketting the airwaves and has an extensive ground operation in Iowa, has a commanding lead in the race. It would be nothing short of disappointment if Romney were to lose in Iowa, and it could singlehandedly end his bid.
This makes the more important race in Iowa the race for second place. Giuliani, who has made no indications of seriously competing in the state, will suffer negative media coverage for anything less than a 3rd place finish. Huckabee would get good national coverage for a 2nd or 3rd place finish and it could generate much needed fundraising. For Thompson, a 2nd place finish would position him as the challenger to whomever remains standing from the Rudy-Romney fight.
Actually I think that Romney needs to win by about the margin that he has right now in order for it to be a springboard victory that he needs. The way that Romney is trending right now, it will not surprise me if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire (to Thompson and Giuliani respectively). But even if Thompson closes to 5 points or less, I think Romney's campaign will be dead.
Posted by: Joel | October 8, 2007 9:34 AM | Permalink to Comment