Talk today is of a piece by Dan Balz that sets some new conventional wisdom. Balz looks at the Republican race and concludes that contrary to the conventional wisdom of the summer that this race was headed towards a two person Rudy vs. Mitt, it has instead become a wide open five way race. This is because of McCain's resurgence, Huckabee's up and coming, and Thompson's entrance.
Thus the Biz decided it's time to set our first and second tiers. We'll define the first tier as the likelihood of candidates finishing first or second in the Triumvirate of South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire, and the second tier as the potential of finishing first or second in the Triumvirate.
The first tier is still solidly Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney. These candidates have proven they can raise the money to be competitive. It is also very possible that the candidates could split the Triumvirate with Romney taking Iowa, Thompson taking South Carolina, and Giuliani taking New Hampshire.
Following very closely in the second tier is Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Ron Paul. Huckabee and McCain don't crack into the top tier yet because they haven't proven they can raise the money. Their campaigns can spin all day long, but the reality is they're broke.
Huckabee's Iowa ground organization is impressive and he will finish either second or third in that state. But how he his finishes depends on how much Thompson decides to spend there. And the more Thompson spends, the less likely it is Huckabee will take second. Thus his fate is dependent on the decisions of another campaign; not top tier material.
McCain still has impressive New Hampshire and South Carolina roots from his 2000 days. While a second place finish in South Carolina is unlikely, in New Hampshire it's not. And with New Hampshire potentially being the first primary, a second place finish would give him the "comeback kid" narrative and fuel his fundraising.
Although Paul has no chance of becoming the Republican nominee (and thus shouldn't be considered), we felt he had to be included because he has more money on hand than McCain or Huckabee and could theoretically, albeit unlikely, pull off a second place finish in New Hampshire (or Iowa).
I agree with your tiering except in regard to Fred Thompson. His campaigning is lackluster, his message unclear and his personal appearances disappointing. He seems to have no driving force or purpose. This is already evident here in Iowa and will be felt in his poor caucus results. I predict that he finishes fourth or worse.
Posted by: Claire Celsi | October 25, 2007 11:45 AM | Permalink to Comment