Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

As Hillary Clinton sows up the Democratic nomination, Mike Huckabee gains momentum. Thus, the possibility of a matchup between the two former residents of the Arkansas Governor's mansion earns this week's Friday Look.

There haven't been any national polls that test a Clinton-Huckabee matchup. Similarly, Intrade doesn't even have a hypothetical matchup trading on its political market. But a bout between the one-time Republican staffer and the "pro-life liberal" presents an interesting anaylsis...

Huckabee has been accused of being a "pro-life liberal" by Fred Thompson and has been attacked as tax-raiser by the Club for Growth. In addition, he often refers to his roots in poverty and has began using an increasingly populist language on the stump:

I'm a conservative, but if that means I have to close my eyes to poverty and hunger, I'm not going to do that. [This would be to] refuse a larger allegiance, to my own soul, and also standing before God. Overall, the macro economy is doing very well. . . . But in the micro economy — how specific groups are doing — there is a growing disparity between the top and the bottom, and not just the bottom.

It's a new strain of conservative populism that is sure to resonate in Iowa and the rest of Middle America. Meanwhile, John Edwards is crowding out any room to be a populist in the Democratic primary, and Hillary Clinton, comfortable with her lead, is shifting into "General Election mode" (to quote Edwards). She is also using more centrist and (foreign policy) hawkish language on the stump.

In a general election matchup, Huckabee could out flank Clinton with populists. Even though the loudest populist voice right now is withdrawl from Iraq, Clinton has already said she isn't going to do that and for all intents and purposes is the same as Huckabee on the war. And with Huckabee speaking in populist language, he could win their hearts and minds; if not their votes. Thus they wouldn't support Clinton in the same way Christian conservatives would react to Rudy Giuliani.

In a state by state breakdown, Huckabee solidifys the South and Midwest in a way that the other candidates (with the exception of the other Southerner in the race) can't. His conservative populist message and his easygoing personality would resonate well among those voters.

An often ignored fact about Clinton is that she puts some traditionally Republican states in play; which is only exacerbated if a non-traditional Republican is running against her. States like Arkansas (former First Lady), Tennessee (carried by her husband twice), and Missouri (just elected a Democratic woman statewide) would be in play against a non-Southern candidate.

Huckabee also has an appeal that is strong in some traditionally Democratic Midwestern states such as Ohio and Michigan. He is the only Republican to have courted unions. Similarly, the record Club for Growth attacks Huckabee for becomes an asset in those states. Coupled with the populist language, the states could be Huckabee's key to winning.

Huckabee could easily lock up all the states that President Bush won, a feat some of his opponents can't promise.