Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

As the early states continue to tighten and the likelihood of the Republican nomination going to Convention increases, this week's Friday Look will look at January: the "March Madness" of presidential politics. 

While the issue candidacies - Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes and Ron Paul - have been fun, it's time to start getting serious about picking a nominee. January Madness starts with Iowa, lasts through the Triumvirate contests, and culminates on Tsunami Tuesday, February 5th. At the end of this we may very well have a nominee; and if not, we're heading to Convention.

Although the Iowa comes first, with the exception of Mike Huckabee, it is not where the key to victory lies. Rather it is Tsunami Tuesday and the rest of the Triumvirate.

In the North Regional we have Mitt Romney vs. Rudy Giuliani. The North revolves around New Hampshire and Tsunami Tuesday.

Giuliani has been the undisputed national front runner and appeals to the larger, liberal Tsunami states. Thus, he is betting all his chips on a strong showing on Feb. 5. Romney, on the other hand, has spent considerably in the early states and has strong polling numbers in all of them. He is counting on momentum from victories there to carry him through Tsunami Tuesday.

Romney has on a number of occasions tried to engage Giuliani head on in an attempt to shift the narrative to a two man race. The problem is that he was successful, but a side race developed in the meantime. And now Romney has to play in the sandbox he created.

In the South Regional we have Mike Huckabee vs. Fred Thompson. The South revolves around Iowa, South Carolina and Tsunami Tuesday.

Huckabee's continuing climb in Iowa makes it unlikely Thompson will defeat him there. Thus, the race goes into the South Carolina and the Southern Tsunami states where Thompson is strong.

So the question becomes, is Huckabee's showing in Iowa strong enough for the media to anoint him the South's favorite son? If he is ultimately successful in knocking off Romney, he will most likely get the momentum he needs to win South Carolina and the rest of the South. And concurrently, it would setup a Giuliani-Huckabee match up going into Feb. 5.

John McCain remains a wildcard. While we don't think that he will finish in the top two in any of the Triumvirate states, you can never count him out of anything. But we're betting he drops out before the end of January.

While we don't like to make predictions here at ElephantBiz, we will guarantee that when the dust settles in the Republican primary on Feb. 5 there will be two candidates left standing; one from the South and one from the North.