Marc Ambinder has some interesting analysis that looks at the potential of the Republican primary extending until March:
Mitt Romney wins Iowa; Mike Huckabee is second; Rudy Giuliani is third; Fred Thompson is fourth.
Giuliani wins New Hampshire, followed by Romney or Huckabee or McCain.
Romney wins Michigan; Huckabee or McCain is second.
Thompson wins South Carolina, followed by Giuliani. Romney is third.
Florida will be extremely competitive on Jan. 29.
The candidates split the Feb. 5 states, with Giuliani running the table in the Northeast, Thompson taking the South and Romney picking up Arizona and winning delegates in proportionally allocated states elsewhere.
The media isn't sure which candidate to pressure to drop out; Romney will have enough money to compete, Giuliani may have a delegate lead, and Thompson is clearly the favorite son in the deep South.
Could March 4 be the filter? That's when Ohio and Minnesota -- two big Midwestern swing states -- not to mention Vermont and Massachusetts -- hold contests.
Under this scenario, there is a very likely possibility that the Republican Primary won't end, and we could see a floor fight at the Republican Convention.
The Biz doubts any are looking as far as March 4. But the major candidates do have strategies that revolve around certain dates/primaries:
The whole way: Mitt Romney
Feb. 5: Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson
Triumvirate (IA, NH, SC): John McCain
Iowa 3rd: Mike Huckabee
After these dates the respective campaigns are likely to be completely broke. Romney is the exception since he will tap his personal wealth to stay in the race as long as he deems himself viable.
Thanks for the interesting analysis, but where in this mess is Ron Paul? He is building momentum as most other candidates are slumping. I think it is far more likely that Ron Paul takes New Hampshire and a few other states, and that he is one of the contenders in any fight for the nomination.
As Ron Paul has shown today that he can raise money when he needs it. Supporters organized a one day "money bomb" that has sent over 2.3 million dollars to the campaign in one day, and it is still exploding!
Posted by: Scott | November 5, 2007 2:22 PM | Permalink to Comment