First Read has the narrative of the debates, thus far:
The seemingly endless debate parade of 2007 began -- on the Republican side -- at the Reagan Library in California, underneath Reagan's own Air Force One. It took us to Columbia, SC (where the GOP candidates sparred for the first time), to Manchester, NH (where audio/lightning troubles allowed Rudy to joke, after receiving a question on abortion and Catholic faith, that perhaps God was trying to punish him), and then to here in Des Moines (where Brownback -- remember him? -- targeted Romney on abortion). It continued on to the economic debate in Dearborn, MI (where Thompson made his first appearance), to Orlando, FL, then to St. Petersburg, FL for the YouTube debate, and then the Spanish-language one on Univision last Sunday. Now it's come to this: the final Republican debate before the Iowa caucuses.
The weather forecast for today is a low of 14°F and high of 25°F. The midwest is in the middle of a major ice storm (thank you global warming), and the major presidential candidates have cancelled events. And Iowans are at home bundled up. That means that this debate could have one of the largest local audiences of any debate yet.
On the stage, however, it's likely to get hot, especially for one Mike Huckabee. The hits we thought he would take in the last debate never quite materialized, at least in the debates, and he enters today with an even larger target on his back. In recent weeks we've seen new ads and meteoric rise in the polls from him, and a negative ad from Mitt Romney and a negative mail piece from Fred Thompson against him. Look for some of those themes to be echoed this afternoon.
We're guessing the stars of today's debate will be the three leaders in Iowa, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson. Watch for the latter two, especially Romney, to take some cheap shots at Huckabee. Giuliani and McCain are likely to hold their fire on Huckabee since the better he does in Iowa, the more it helps them in New Hampshire. Also look for a Rudy vs. Mitt exchange; previous debates haven't let us down yet:
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