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Dec21
Parsing New Hampshire

USA TODAY/Gallup has a new poll from New Hampshire that shows John McCain closing on Mitt Romney in what is quickly becoming a two man race there:

Romney 34%
McCain 27%
Giuliani 11%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 9%
Thompson 4% 

In contrast to South Carolina, the detailed poll shows that half of the voters in New Hampshire are certain to vote for their preferred candidate; although only 19% of Romney and 15% of McCain's support is solid. Additionally, NH voters are more concerned with voting for someone who agrees with them on the issues than they are someone who could win the general election. 

While there is still room for movement, it is unlikely that either candidate (unless Romney miraculously pulls off an upset) will get any kind of bump coming out of Iowa. Thus New Hampshire will be won in the paid media game. Plus, New Hampshire has historically shown a tendency to make up its own mind when with regards to nominating candidates.


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