Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Rudy Giuliani has been bullish on his big state strategy that begins with Florida and ends on February 5th. Last night, in every interview he did he congratulated Mike Huckabee on his victory in Iowa, and then proceeded to sell his strategy of getting the required number of delegates to win the nomination.

But consider this: California's early voting begins on Monday. Florida's early voting begins on Jan. 14. Tennessee's early voting begins Jan. 16. South Carolina's primary is Jan. 19.

With all the time and resources that the campaigns are placing in the early states, they will be unable to shift their focus to the February 5th states before early voters head to the polls. Thus, the only information many of those early voters will be armed with is who won the early primaries and their superficial impressions of the candidates.

Those superficial impressions are fickle, and are quickly changing as the race begins to develop. Giuliani's national numbers have been slipping of late; and Huckabee and the winner of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary are sure to get a big bump in the national polls.

This does not bode well for Giuliani who was relying on his national name recognition and image cultivated after 9/11, not primary victories, to carry him to the nomination.