My weekly column is up at the American Chronicle. If you are interested in syndicating this column please contact me.
Conventional wisdom told us that February 5th, also known as National Primary Day or Tsunami Tuesday, would give us the nominee. We would have three Presidents by February 5th, or more specifically, we’d have one President and two people acting and talking like a President. But luckily for President Bush, as this race has begun to take shape, the likelihood of having a nominee by February 5th is beginning to look less and less likely. This week’s Friday Look will look at the delegate math behind the Republican Presidential nomination.
This is an interesting analysis. I've been looking over the web for a breakdown of the delegate race and have barely found anything interesting. The rules are obviously complex, but surely each candidate staffs would have done the numbers and you would expect some media analysis.
Its difficult to predict feb 5 results, but you can get close in the proportional states, and most of the winner take alls have an obvious favourite. I could see McCain getting serious momentum and ending up with enough delegates or Giuliani being considered irrevelent and bringing the winner take alls in the North East into play for McCain or Romney. But the most likely scenario seems to be what you're sketched out. That will hopefully mean a very interesting convention.
Thanks for sketching it out. Hopefully the rest of the media will soon turn their attention to the delegate race and provide some insight.
Posted by: Glen | January 14, 2008 3:21 AM | Permalink to Comment