Rudy Giuliani is up with a new ad in Florida. Expect ad saturation of the state to commence soon.
In the wake of Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan, Giuliani's big state strategy is starting to look like the right play.
Florida is a microcosm of the United States.
It has a large and growing Hispanic population in the southern part of the state. The capital is Tallahassee and its largest city is Jacksonville; two cities with distinctly Southern traditions. There is also a large Evangelical/Christian base northern part/panhandle of the state.
It also has its fair share of Northeast transplants, notably retirees from New York and New Jersey. It also has a fair share of Northeast "visitors" this time of the year; these are people who own two residences with one in Florida. (And it is no surprise that Giuliani would follow his fellow New Yorkers to the Sunshine State and take up residence there for the month as well.)
Thus the outcome of Florida could provide a barometer for Tsunami Tuesday (which happens six days later) and could serve as a huge momentum boost to the winner(s).
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Florida will be a barometer IF you don't use the overall result and break it down by demographic. I don't think Florida will be particularly indicative of what will happen in Tennessee or Georgia. Florida has a wide variety of demographics, but the states that follow are each more narrow.
I think Florida will be indicative of what will happen in other big states, but not the smaller states.
Posted by: Joel | January 16, 2008 11:49 AM | Permalink to Comment