The Fix has an "internal" memo from the McCain camp:
"Senator McCain is tremendously well positioned to win the nomination of our party and will be the de facto nominee of the party following the February 5th Super Tuesday elections," writes Davis. "Governor Romney has a delegate problem the media will soon figure out."
McCain's strength (and Romney's weakness), according to Davis, is centered on a series of "winner take all" states where whoever wins the popular vote is awarded all of the state's delegates. Second place in these states gets a candidate no delegates.
In the seven "winner take all" states set to vote next Tuesday -- New York, Missouri Arizona, New Jersey, Utah, Connecticut and Delaware -- McCain holds significant polling leads in five. No recent polling is available in Utah -- almost certainly a Romney state -- or Delaware, a likely McCain win.
Add up the delegates in the five states where McCain currently leads and he nets 279 of the 327 available delegates. Romney takes 33 for winning Utah. Delaware's 15 delegates remain a toss up, according to the McCain memo.
"Senator McCain's 20+ point leads in 'winner take all' states on Super Tuesday give him a tremendous advantage over Mitt Romney in the delegate race," writes Davis.
In states that award delegates either proportional to the total vote or to the winners of each congressional district, McCain also is in good shape, according to Davis.
In California, for example, where 170 delegates are at stake, Davis estimates that McCain will win 63 delegates to 44 for Romney, 22 for Giuliani and 19 for former governor Mike Huckabee (Ark.). In Georgia, the McCain campaign estimates that Huckabee will win the delegate fight with 21 followed by McCain at 12 and Romney at 10.
All told, the memo projects that McCain will walk away with 423 of the 1009 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, while Romney is currently positioned to win only 143. Another 298 delegates are included in a toss up category.
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