Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Congratulations to Mike Huckabee.

Last night's caucus provided some interesting revelations. That Huckabee won isn't the surprise, it's the margin by which he won. While there was a lot of cynicism about his decision to pull his negative ad at the last minute; it turns out he was right.

The conventional wisdom that negative advertising doesn't work in Iowa holds true. Conversely, the conventional wisdom that the more money you spend, the better you will do was turned on its head. Huckabee was outspent 15 to 1 by Mitt Romney; but it wasn't even close. Similarly, John McCain didn't air a single ad (or spend much time in the state) but finished within votes of Fred Thompson who spent the bulk of his resources there.

The accuracy of the polls heading into the caucus last night were interesting as well. With the exception of Rudy Giuliani (who fared worse than even he thought he would) and Huckabee, all the candidates finished where the last polls predicted them to. Evangelicals were surely under counted in them, as they made up 60% of caucus goers and were the base of Huckabee's win. 

Looking down ballot, Fred Thompson got his third place finish and bought himself a ticket to South Carolina. Similarly, Ron Paul beat Giuliani; perhaps a forbearer to Tsunami Tuesday. 

As I've written before, Huckabee hails from the Christian conservative wing of the Party who see themselves as perennial outsiders. That irks the east coast establishment who has always been wary of the "crazy Christians" in Middle America. They prefer to "use" this part of the base to win elections; and then pay them lip service when it comes time to legislate. Now they are faced with the unfortunate reality that they may actually have to deal with one.